Detroit Lions @ Los Angeles Rams Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – LA RAMS (-15) over Detroit

The Lions are without starting WRs Tyrell Williams (concussion) and Quintez Cephus (broken collarbone) and Jared Goff should continue to struggle throwing the ball down the field after completing just 1 of his 7 passes with at least 10 air yards last week. The Rams faced a Giants offense last Sunday similarly injured at wide receiver and had a 30% blitz rate. Sean McVay recognizes the deficiencies of his former quarterback and will put him under pressure all game. RG Jonah Jackson ranks 47th out of 54 qualifying guards in pass blocking efficiency and he will not be able to stay in front of DT Aaron Donald, who leads all interior defenders with 32 pressures.

Cooper Kupp is leading the league with 3.38 yards per route run in the slot and Lions CB AJ Parker is surrendering 1.36 yards per cover snap in the slot which ranks 18th out of 23 qualifying nickelbacks. Matt Stafford should have plenty of time to look downfield as LT Andrew Whitworth is allowing only 1.2 pressures per game and he will limit edge defender Charles Harris, who ranks 8th in pass rushing efficiency.

Our model favors the Rams by 17.0 points, with a predicted total of 52.2 points.

Team Stats
Game Log

Lions
Rams

DET

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 41.86 31.43
Succ Pass Plays 47.7% 50.7%
Sack Rate 5.9% 6.4%
Int Rate 1.8% 2.2%
Deep Pass Rate 14.9% 23.4%
Big Pass Yards 34.0% 54.7%
NYPP 5.40 8.60

Rush

Rush Plays 23.57 28.86
RB YPR 3.95 3.77
Stuff Rate 24.8% 27.0%
Succ Rush Plays 47.3% 45.1%
Big Rush Yards 38.6% 30.2%
Yards Per Rush 4.14 3.91

Game

All Snaps 65.43 60.29
Early Down Succ 51.9% 50.8%
Succ Rate 47.4% 48.3%
Big Yards Rate 36.1% 47.4%
Yards Per Play 4.92 6.30
Fumble Lost Rate 0.9% 0.8%
Time Per Play (sec) 27.46 29.94
Run Ratio 36.3% 48.0%
Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
Game Control -6.37 6.37

Points 18.29 28.57

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	SF	33 – 41 L	-9.15	41.7% / 55.6%	5.0% / 3.7%	1.8% / 0.0%	5.23 / 11.52	50.0% / 37.0%	20.8% / 33.3%	4.83 / 3.44	84 / 54	50.0% / 50.0%	44.0% / 46.3%	49.3% / 53.6%	5.12 / 7.48	0.0% / 3.7%	28.6% / 50.0%	0.00 / 0.00
2	@GB	17 – 35 L	-3.29	54.1% / 60.0%	2.7% / 10.0%	2.8% / 0.0%	6.38 / 7.57	57.9% / 41.9%	10.5% / 25.8%	5.68 / 3.10	56 / 61	60.0% / 51.0%	55.4% / 50.8%	41.0% / 26.8%	6.14 / 5.30	1.8% / 0.0%	33.9% / 50.8%	0.00 / 0.00
3	BLT	17 – 19 L	-4.64	54.5% / 37.1%	6.1% / 11.4%	0.0% / 3.2%	5.82 / 7.74	40.7% / 54.5%	33.3% / 22.7%	3.44 / 5.27	60 / 57	52.0% / 53.5%	48.3% / 43.9%	31.3% / 57.3%	4.75 / 6.79	0.0% / 0.0%	45.0% / 38.6%	0.00 / 0.00
4	@CHI	14 – 24 L	-11.79	50.0% / 50.0%	9.5% / 5.6%	0.0% / 5.9%	6.14 / 10.28	52.0% / 53.8%	20.0% / 23.1%	3.60 / 4.82	67 / 57	56.9% / 59.6%	50.7% / 52.6%	40.1% / 65.5%	5.19 / 6.54	3.0% / 0.0%	37.3% / 68.4%	0.00 / 0.00
5	@MIN	17 – 19 L	-4.04	41.0% / 47.2%	10.3% / 5.6%	2.9% / 2.9%	4.62 / 7.33	54.2% / 35.7%	25.0% / 35.7%	4.50 / 4.29	63 / 64	53.1% / 44.9%	46.0% / 42.2%	25.1% / 35.2%	4.57 / 6.00	1.6% / 1.6%	38.1% / 43.8%	0.00 / 0.00
6	CIN	11 – 34 L	-13.06	46.5% / 50.0%	2.3% / 6.3%	0.0% / 3.3%	4.47 / 8.00	33.3% / 55.6%	38.9% / 16.7%	2.00 / 3.94	61 / 68	45.5% / 52.0%	42.6% / 52.9%	13.9% / 49.0%	3.74 / 5.85	0.0% / 0.0%	29.5% / 52.9%	0.00 / 0.00
7	@LA	19 – 28 L	1.35	46.2% / 54.8%	5.1% / 2.4%	5.4% / 0.0%	7.13 / 7.79	42.9% / 36.8%	25.0% / 31.6%	4.89 / 2.47	67 / 61	45.8% / 44.7%	44.8% / 49.2%	52.1% / 44.4%	6.19 / 6.13	0.0% / 0.0%	41.8% / 31.1%	0.00 / 0.00

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	CHI	34 – 14 W	10.93	55.6% / 55.8%	3.7% / 7.0%	0.0% / 2.5%	11.56 / 4.37	47.8% / 61.5%	34.8% / 26.9%	3.22 / 5.15	50 / 69	51.4% / 66.0%	52.0% / 58.0%	44.3% / 18.6%	7.72 / 4.67	0.0% / 1.4%	46.0% / 37.7%	0.00 / 0.00
2	@IND	27 – 24 W	2.18	58.1% / 46.2%	3.2% / 7.7%	3.3% / 5.6%	8.71 / 6.03	50.0% / 53.8%	21.4% / 23.1%	3.61 / 4.19	59 / 65	59.2% / 51.9%	54.2% / 49.2%	40.6% / 37.2%	6.29 / 5.29	1.7% / 0.0%	47.5% / 40.0%	0.00 / 0.00
3	TB	34 – 24 W	8.05	56.4% / 55.2%	2.6% / 5.2%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.49 / 7.09	45.8% / 46.2%	29.2% / 23.1%	3.17 / 2.69	63 / 71	48.9% / 58.5%	52.4% / 53.5%	53.9% / 32.8%	6.46 / 6.28	0.0% / 0.0%	38.1% / 18.3%	0.00 / 0.00
4	ARZ	20 – 37 L	-10.09	56.1% / 62.9%	0.0% / 8.6%	2.4% / 0.0%	6.83 / 7.11	69.6% / 57.5%	17.4% / 27.5%	5.26 / 5.40	64 / 75	63.5% / 60.7%	60.9% / 60.0%	29.4% / 49.4%	6.27 / 6.20	1.6% / 0.0%	35.9% / 53.3%	0.00 / 0.00
5	@SEA	26 – 17 W	1.13	55.3% / 51.4%	2.6% / 5.7%	2.7% / 6.1%	9.42 / 7.49	44.8% / 56.0%	37.9% / 12.0%	4.07 / 3.68	67 / 60	56.4% / 58.3%	50.7% / 53.3%	57.8% / 44.8%	7.10 / 5.90	0.0% / 0.0%	43.3% / 41.7%	0.00 / 0.00
6	@NYG	38 – 11 W	15.52	62.5% / 36.4%	6.3% / 7.3%	6.7% / 5.9%	7.31 / 3.65	52.9% / 38.9%	20.6% / 27.8%	3.85 / 3.33	66 / 73	64.2% / 41.2%	57.6% / 37.0%	34.8% / 4.6%	5.53 / 3.58	0.0% / 1.4%	51.5% / 24.7%	0.00 / 0.00
7	DET	28 – 19 W	-1.35	54.8% / 46.2%	2.4% / 5.1%	0.0% / 5.4%	7.79 / 7.13	36.8% / 42.9%	31.6% / 25.0%	2.47 / 4.89	61 / 67	44.7% / 45.8%	49.2% / 44.8%	44.4% / 52.1%	6.13 / 6.19	0.0% / 0.0%	31.1% / 41.8%	0.00 / 0.00

Detroit Lions @

Los Angeles Rams

Sun, Oct 24

1:05 PM Pacific

Game Analysis