Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Detroit (-3 -105) over LA CHARGERS

Lean – Over (48.5)

· The Chargers’ 27 points last Monday night is very deceiving as the special teams scored a touchdown and the defense had 3 takeaways setting them up with great field position (one fumble return to the 2-yard line in the final minutes).

· The Chargers gained just 3.4 yppl versus the Jets and New York’s defense perfectly covered the Los Angeles receivers on 56% of dropbacks according to PFF, the 10th-highest mark by a defense this season. Los Angeles’ problems on offense without starting C Corey Linsley and WR Mike Williams are not fixed.

· Lions nickelback Brian Branch is conceding 0.92 yards per slot cover snap (7th) and the rookie will contain inside receiver Keenan Allen, who has a 61% success rate (7th).

· Detroit edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson has 46 pressures (3rd) and he will wreak havoc against RT Trey Pipkins, who has allowed 6 sacks (2nd-most).

· The Los Angeles defensive line is finally playing up to their potential. Edge defenders Khalil Mack, Joey Bosa, and Tuli Tuipulotu had 22 pressures in New York. Mack caused his 3rd turnover by pressure of the season (2nd). However, the Chargers edge group will be neutralized in this game as Lions tackles Penei Sewell and Taylor Decker have conceded just 2 sacks combined this year.

· Our model makes Detroit a 3.1-point favorite, with a predicted total of 49.2 points, but the matchups are significantly in favor of the Lions and the over.

Detroit is a Strong Opinion at -3 -115 or better.