Game Analysis

KANSAS CITY (-4.5) vs Detroit

· The major storyline for the NFL’s opening game this season is who will not be on the field for the reigning Super Bowl Champions. The Chiefs will be without two All-Pros in DT Chris Jones and TE Travis Kelce.

· Kelce hyperextended his knee at practice Tuesday and likely will be sidelined for a few weeks. Father time might finally be catching up to Kelce after the tight end missed only one game due to injury over the last 5 seasons.  Just one tight end in the history of the NFL has had more than 1,000 yards at 34 years old (Pete Retzlaff in 1965).

· Only 9% of Patrick Mahomes’ total career dropbacks have come without Kelce on the field. Kelce averaged 0.43 EPA/target in 2022 and the Chiefs are activating seven WRs, but it looks like the favorite to step in for the vacated inside work is Skyy Moore, who averaged 0.17 EPA/target last year. That’s a difference of 2.4 points if Moore gets the 9 targets that would’ve gone to Kelce. We have him worth more like a point and a half by our metrics because of an expected Kelce drop-off, an anticipated improvement in Moore’s play, and backup TE Noah Gray’s effectiveness last season (13 expected points added from 34 targets).

· Kansas City’s defensive line comes into this game without their two best players. Chris Jones led all interior defenders with 77 pressures last season and is holding out for a new contract. New addition Charles Omeihu ranked 20th in pass-rushing efficiency among edge defenders with the 49ers but is suspended to start the season. The cluster losses on the defensive line are worth about 2 points and Detroit’s offensive line should be able to bully the remaining young Chiefs up front.

· I think the Lions will lean into the ground game on Thursday as their group of receivers is near the bottom of the NFL. WR Jameson Williams is out to start the season, which leaves Amon-Ra St. Brown as the only receiver above replacement level on this offense. Wide receivers Kalif Raymond, Josh Reynolds, and Marvin Jones combined for just 1.38 yards per route run in 2022 and I’m not expecting much from rookie TE Sam LaPorta.

· Detroit’s quarterback Jared Goff is also overrated. Goff was the 26th-rated QB according to our metrics last year. That seems low for a quarterback who finished 6th in EPA/play, but our metrics aren’t the only ones that had him below average as Goff graded as PFF’s 20th quarterback last year and finished below Marcus Mariota with a completion percentage versus expectation (-2.1%). We assign much of the credit for Detroit’s offensive production last season to coordinator Ben Johnson, but defensive play-callers have had all offseason to adjust to his power run scheme.

· Kansas City’s secondary loses starting S Juan Thornhill but should be able to replace his production in the secondary with year 1 to year 2 expected improvements by Trent McDuffie, Jaylen Watson, Joshua Williams, and Bryan Cook. The Chiefs conceded only a 42% success rate in the second half of last season (4th) despite those rookies accounting for 45% of their cover snaps.

· The betting market is implying Detroit’s defense is 1.2 points better than where they finished last year and I believe that to be warranted. They bring in cornerback Cameron Sutton and safety CJ Gardner-Johnson, who should stabilize the back end. Plus, edge defender Aidan Hutchinson has the chance to vault himself into a Pro Bowler after recording 53 pressures in his rookie season – although it could be tough sledding in this game.

· I think the Chiefs upgraded at tackle after letting Orlando Brown and Andrew Wylie walk this offseason. New RT Jawaan Taylor ranked 7th in pass-blocking efficiency last season after factoring out screens, play actions, quick passes under 2 seconds, and defenses sending only 3 rushers. New LT Donovan Smith ranked 25th in that metric last year and 16th in 2021. The departed tackles, Brown and Wylie ranked 31st and 41st respectively.

· I also like the Chiefs replacing WR Juju Smith-Schuster with Richie James, who had the 4th highest success rate when targeted last season. James ranked 26th in 538’s receiver rankings, which factor in difficulty of reception, ability to get open, and yards after catch, while Smith-Schuster rated 46th.

· Sean McVay proved you can take a team to the Super Bowl without playing any starters during the preseason in 2019. Plenty of coaches have adopted that strategy recently. It does ensure none of your important players get injured, but it doesn’t seem to help teams early in the season. Teams that rested their starters for the entire preseason are 6-13 straight up and 7-12 ATS in week 1 since the start of 2020. The Lions did not use starters in the preseason while the Chiefs did put them on the field.

· We’ve seen Kansas City go from a 7-point favorite down to -4.5 throughout the summer with the Jones holdout, Omenihu suspension, and most recently Kelce’s knee. The market has moved about 9% in win probability, and we have that trio worth 11% in win probability. However, we’re lower on Detroit’s offense than the betting market to start the season, so we don’t see value on the side or total.

· Our metrics favor the Chiefs by 4.2 points with a predicted total of 53.5.