Game Analysis
Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.
1-Star Best Bet – *Detroit Team Total Under (25.5)
Lean – GREEN BAY (+2.5) over Detroit
- Detroit’s offense is overrated in the market after scoring 52 points last week while having only 61 net passing yards. Jared Goff had the fewest number of passing yards with 3 or more touchdown passes in an NFL game in 48 years. The Lions had 262 combined punt and kick return yards, caught two interceptions, and forced two fumbles against the Titans.
- I expect the turnovers to swing the other way in this game as it will be raining and windy in Green Bay. Goff is averaging 0.5 interceptions and fumbles more per game outdoors than indoors throughout his career.
- The recipe for stopping Detroit’s offense is getting pressure on Goff without having to blitz. Goff against a standard pass rush has a yards per attempt just 79% of his yards per attempt versus the blitz (30th) and he will struggle in the elements against a Packers defense with a 74% standard pass rush rate (6th-highest). Goff will not be able to push the ball downfield due to the suspension of WR Jameson Williams, who was averaging 0.40 EPA/target (17th).
- The screen game and quick passes will not be there for Goff. The Lions are targeting RBs on 21% of passes (7th-most) but Green Bay’s defense is allowing -0.17 EPA/target to opposing running backs (5th). Packers nickelback Keisean Nixon is conceding 0.96 yards per cover snap in the slot (6th) and he will limit WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, who has a 60% success rate (12th).
- Detroit’s offense will run the ball in the rain, as will Green Bay with RB Josh Jacobs coming off a game in which he had 25 carries for 127 yards.
- Jordan Love is going to gut through a groin strain, but he will struggle with his footing in the rain. The Packers yards per attempt versus man coverage is only 57% of the yards per attempt against zone and Matt LaFleur’s offense is not designed to attack the Lions with a 37% man-coverage rate (5th-highest).
- Detroit’s defense is allowing only a 37% success rate to opposing tight ends (3rd) and they should limit TE Tucker Kraft, who is averaging a league-high 0.57 EPA/target.
- Green Bay WR Jayden Reed is averaging 0.63 EPA/target (7th) and he has a favorable matchup on the inside across from nickelback Amik Robertson, who is surrendering 1.62 yards per cover snap in the slot (2nd-worst).
- Green Bay’s home field advantage is greater in the 2nd half the season when the weather becomes a factor. In fact, the Packers are 99-62-4 ATS at home from week 9 on, including 93-50-4 ATS if not favored by more than 11 points.
- Our model favors the Lions by 1.3 with a predicted total of 43.3 after accounting for Love’s lack of mobility.
The Detroit Team Total Under (25.5) at 24.5 or more is a 1-Star Best Bet. The alternate play is the game Under (47.5) at 47 or more.