Game Analysis

Detroit (-2) vs GREEN BAY

· Reinforcements are on the way as Jordan Love will finally have his full complement of weapons alongside him this Thursday night. Running back Aaron Jones is back and he’s averaging 4.6 yards per carry compared to backup AJ Dillon’s 2.7 yards per rush. Top wide receiver Christian Watson makes his first start of the season after averaging 3.32 yards per route run against man coverage as a rookie last year. Watson will line up across from Detroit CB Jerry Jacobs, who ranks 8th-worst in coverage grade by PFF.

· Watson should take over the feature role right away as Lions nickelback Brian Branch is allowing just 0.87 yards per cover snap in the slot (10th) and he will limit fellow rookie Jayden Reed, who is averaging 0.38 EPA/target ranking 25th among wide receivers.

· Green Bay right tackle Zack Tom and Detroit right tackle Penei Sewell are tied for the league lead in pass blocking efficiency. Tom will line up across from Aidan Hutchinson, whose 19 pressures leads all edge rushers. Sewell will be tasked with trying to contain Packers’ edge defender Rashan Gary, who has turned 44 pass rushes into 3.5 sacks this season (8th).

· Green Bay defensive tackles Kenny Clark and Devonte Wyatt have combined for 22 pressures on the interior. Lions starting LG Jonah Jackson ranks 8th-worst in pass blocking efficiency and starting RG Halapoulivaati Vaitai is out.

· Detroit WR Josh Reynolds has a 69% success rate (5th) but he will be limited by CB Rasul Douglas, who ranks 6th in PFF coverage grade.

· The Packers will be missing 2021 first-team All-Pro linebacker De’Vondre Campbell and Jared Goff will try to take advantage by looking for RB Jahmyr Gibbs out of the backfield and TE Sam LaPorta, who is averaging 0.18 EPA/target (8th).

· Our model favors the Lions by 0.2 points, with a predicted total of 45.1 points.