Game Analysis
Lean – Under (44.5) – GREEN BAY (-7.5) vs Detroit
The Lions are gaining just 4.6 yards per play since losing Pro Bowl guard T.J. Lang and the offense will need to make some significant changes heading into the 2019 season. The Packers best two defenders both play on the interior up front, but neither Kenny Clark or Mike Daniels will be available to take advantage of Lang’s vacancy for this game. Still, I expect Detroit’s offense to struggle as they inexplicably continue to give LeGarrette Blount carries. Blount has just a 32% rush success rate this season, 3rd-worst among the 45 running backs with at least 100 attempts, and is averaging only 2.8 ypr, which is fewer than fellow back Zach Zenner (5.1 ypr). The Kerryon Johnson injury has really hurt the Lions’ offense, as Johnson was averaging 5.4 ypr.
The strength of Detroit’s defense is getting to the quarterback as they’ve recorded an 8.1% sack rate (5th). However, the Lions will not have Ziggy Ansah or Da’Shawn Hand available and A’Shawn Robinson is questionable, so Aaron Rodgers should have some time to operate. Jamaal Williams is a slight downgrade from Aaron Jones (out) in the running game and I don’t expect much from the second-year running back as Detroit’s rush defense ranks 4th since trading for Snacks Harrison in the middle of the season. Harrison is dominant on the inside and will lead the league in run stops for a fourth-straight season, although he has still never made a Pro Bowl appearance.
Our model favors Green Bay by 7.9 with a predicted total of 45.1, so the line is pretty fair on this game. However, I’ll lean under based on a very good 717-513-16 under situation.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
37.9
31.7
-
Succ Pass Plays
46.4%
52.5%
-
Sack Rate
7.2%
8.3%
-
Int Rate
1.9%
1.4%
-
Deep Pass Rate
14.5%
23.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
33.6%
40.4%
-
NYPP
6.1
7.5
Rush
-
Rush Plays
24.9
27.0
-
RB YPR
3.9
4.3
-
Stuff Rate
23.9%
22.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
43.7%
43.1%
-
Big Rush Yards
37.3%
37.6%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.0
4.2
Game
-
All Snaps
62.8
58.7
-
Early Down Succ
47.6%
50.8%
-
Succ Rate
45.2%
48.3%
-
Big Yards Rate
36.9%
41.4%
-
Yards Per Play
5.2
5.9
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.7%
0.8%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.9
29.6
-
Run Ratio
40.6%
45.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.3
27.6
-
Game Control
-1.5
1.5
Pass
-
Pass Plays
41.9
34.9
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.9%
48.8%
-
Sack Rate
8.3%
8.2%
-
Int Rate
0.5%
1.5%
-
Deep Pass Rate
22.3%
19.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
43.8%
44.4%
-
NYPP
6.6
7.0
Rush
-
Rush Plays
21.7
28.1
-
RB YPR
4.7
4.2
-
Stuff Rate
17.4%
19.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
51.9%
45.7%
-
Big Rush Yards
43.1%
36.8%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.9
4.2
Game
-
All Snaps
63.6
63.1
-
Early Down Succ
51.2%
50.1%
-
Succ Rate
49.1%
46.9%
-
Big Yards Rate
45.3%
42.6%
-
Yards Per Play
6.1
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.2%
0.9%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.0
29.2
-
Run Ratio
34.3%
45.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
26.9
30.3
-
Game Control
-0.5
0.5
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
NYJ |
17 – 48 L |
-11.9 |
44.2% /
65.2% |
0.0% /
8.7% |
9.6% /
4.8% |
5.8 /
7.8 |
37.5% /
32.6% |
25.0% /
9.3% |
2.5 /
4.0 |
68 /
66 |
51.0% /
53.8% |
42.6% /
43.9% |
37.9% /
55.1% |
5.0 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
23.5% /
65.2% |
23.0 /
40.7 |
| 2 |
@SF |
27 – 30 L |
-5.3 |
43.6% /
53.1% |
3.6% /
18.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
4.9 |
44.4% /
44.8% |
5.6% /
24.1% |
5.4 /
6.6 |
73 /
61 |
44.6% /
56.3% |
43.8% /
49.2% |
38.4% /
48.7% |
5.8 /
5.7 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
24.7% /
47.5% |
24.8 /
32.3 |
| 3 |
NE |
26 – 10 W |
8.1 |
61.1% /
42.9% |
2.8% /
7.1% |
2.9% /
3.8% |
7.1 /
4.3 |
45.5% /
57.9% |
21.2% /
21.1% |
4.8 /
4.7 |
69 /
47 |
54.5% /
56.8% |
53.6% /
48.9% |
36.7% /
19.1% |
6.0 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
47.8% /
40.4% |
30.2 /
26.4 |
| 4 |
@DAL |
24 – 26 L |
-1.7 |
54.5% /
50.0% |
9.1% /
10.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.7 /
7.7 |
40.0% /
55.6% |
25.0% /
22.2% |
4.8 /
5.1 |
53 /
66 |
47.6% /
56.9% |
49.1% /
53.0% |
64.1% /
51.6% |
7.2 /
6.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.7% /
54.5% |
23.8 /
21.8 |
| 5 |
GB |
31 – 23 W |
13.9 |
52.9% /
80.6% |
17.6% /
11.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
10.0 /
11.8 |
34.5% /
52.4% |
27.6% /
9.5% |
3.3 /
4.7 |
46 /
57 |
32.6% /
55.6% |
41.3% /
70.2% |
37.7% /
41.2% |
5.8 /
9.2 |
0.0% /
5.3% |
63.0% /
36.8% |
46.1 /
20.5 |
| 7 |
@MIA |
32 – 21 W |
8.1 |
60.9% /
48.6% |
4.3% /
11.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.1 /
6.1 |
54.1% /
47.4% |
21.6% /
26.3% |
6.8 /
5.6 |
60 /
54 |
66.0% /
46.5% |
56.7% /
48.1% |
60.8% /
40.4% |
7.7 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
61.7% /
35.2% |
23.0 /
25.2 |
| 8 |
SEA |
14 – 28 L |
-8.8 |
55.8% /
57.9% |
7.0% /
10.5% |
2.5% /
0.0% |
6.9 /
12.5 |
30.8% /
50.0% |
23.1% /
23.8% |
2.6 /
4.2 |
56 /
61 |
47.8% /
53.2% |
50.0% /
52.5% |
26.0% /
48.7% |
5.9 /
6.8 |
3.6% /
0.0% |
23.2% /
68.9% |
15.0 /
25.8 |
| 9 |
@MIN |
9 – 24 L |
-8.8 |
39.1% /
56.5% |
21.7% /
4.3% |
0.0% /
4.5% |
3.1 /
6.7 |
40.0% /
43.5% |
16.0% /
26.1% |
2.7 /
5.6 |
71 /
46 |
41.2% /
51.4% |
39.4% /
50.0% |
0.0% /
41.0% |
3.0 /
6.2 |
1.4% /
2.2% |
35.2% /
50.0% |
21.7 /
32.6 |
| 10 |
@CHI |
22 – 34 L |
-15.7 |
43.8% /
58.1% |
12.5% /
3.2% |
4.8% /
0.0% |
4.8 /
11.2 |
54.2% /
31.8% |
29.2% /
36.4% |
3.2 /
2.5 |
72 /
53 |
50.0% /
48.8% |
47.2% /
47.2% |
25.9% /
66.7% |
4.2 /
7.6 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
33.3% /
41.5% |
28.8 /
33.4 |
| 11 |
CAR |
20 – 19 W |
1.3 |
39.5% /
53.7% |
2.6% /
7.3% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
5.7 /
8.1 |
34.5% /
56.3% |
31.0% /
18.8% |
3.3 /
3.5 |
67 /
57 |
42.0% /
56.5% |
37.3% /
54.4% |
37.9% /
51.4% |
4.6 /
6.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
43.3% /
28.1% |
31.9 /
16.4 |
| 12 |
CHI |
16 – 23 L |
-0.5 |
47.5% /
50.0% |
5.0% /
9.5% |
5.3% /
0.0% |
5.6 /
5.4 |
58.3% /
31.3% |
4.2% /
25.0% |
4.6 /
2.4 |
64 /
58 |
56.3% /
51.1% |
51.6% /
44.8% |
27.9% /
24.5% |
5.2 /
4.6 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
37.5% /
27.6% |
27.1 /
27.2 |
| 13 |
LA |
16 – 30 L |
-4.6 |
39.5% /
42.9% |
10.5% /
5.7% |
2.9% /
3.0% |
5.5 /
5.6 |
46.2% /
45.2% |
30.8% /
12.9% |
3.9 /
4.9 |
64 /
66 |
48.1% /
47.1% |
42.2% /
43.9% |
46.8% /
38.7% |
4.8 /
5.2 |
1.6% /
1.5% |
40.6% /
47.0% |
25.7 /
32.0 |
| 14 |
@ARI |
17 – 3 W |
4.3 |
33.3% /
40.9% |
4.2% /
6.8% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
4.0 /
5.0 |
41.9% /
19.0% |
32.3% /
33.3% |
3.9 /
2.9 |
55 /
65 |
39.5% /
33.3% |
38.2% /
33.8% |
18.3% /
7.2% |
4.0 /
4.3 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
56.4% /
32.3% |
25.4 /
23.2 |
| 15 |
@BUF |
13 – 14 L |
2.4 |
44.8% /
40.7% |
0.0% /
3.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.2 /
7.2 |
53.8% /
43.6% |
26.9% /
12.8% |
4.0 /
3.1 |
55 /
66 |
52.4% /
50.0% |
49.1% /
42.4% |
61.7% /
43.3% |
5.7 /
4.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
47.3% /
59.1% |
20.7 /
23.1 |
| 16 |
MIN |
9 – 27 L |
-3.8 |
34.8% /
46.7% |
6.5% /
6.7% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
3.0 /
8.0 |
39.1% /
35.7% |
39.1% /
32.1% |
3.7 /
3.6 |
69 /
58 |
40.0% /
45.5% |
36.2% /
41.4% |
33.2% /
43.5% |
3.2 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
33.3% /
48.3% |
28.0 /
33.3 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
CHI |
24 – 23 W |
-9.5 |
43.9% /
35.9% |
9.8% /
10.3% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
7.3 /
4.0 |
27.8% /
59.3% |
16.7% /
18.5% |
3.8 /
5.1 |
59 /
66 |
40.0% /
48.9% |
39.0% /
45.5% |
59.5% /
38.1% |
6.3 /
4.5 |
1.7% /
1.5% |
30.5% /
40.9% |
30.7 /
25.7 |
| 2 |
MIN |
29 – 29 T |
6.3 |
48.9% /
56.0% |
8.9% /
4.0% |
0.0% /
2.1% |
5.6 /
8.2 |
54.2% /
44.4% |
25.0% /
5.6% |
4.1 /
3.8 |
69 /
68 |
55.4% /
53.7% |
50.7% /
52.9% |
31.3% /
44.4% |
5.1 /
7.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.8% /
26.5% |
29.9 /
26.5 |
| 3 |
@WAS |
17 – 31 L |
-12.0 |
34.7% /
50.0% |
8.2% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
5.0% |
4.9 /
11.0 |
64.7% /
32.4% |
11.8% /
10.8% |
5.9 /
4.5 |
66 /
57 |
42.9% /
40.5% |
42.4% /
38.6% |
35.9% /
60.1% |
5.2 /
6.8 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
25.8% /
64.9% |
26.4 /
30.8 |
| 4 |
BUF |
22 – 0 W |
12.8 |
47.6% /
27.5% |
4.8% /
17.5% |
2.5% /
6.1% |
6.7 /
2.2 |
56.3% /
43.8% |
37.5% /
25.0% |
4.4 /
3.6 |
74 /
56 |
50.0% /
37.5% |
51.4% /
32.1% |
49.6% /
31.0% |
5.7 /
2.6 |
1.4% /
1.8% |
43.2% /
28.6% |
27.4 /
27.3 |
| 5 |
@DET |
23 – 31 L |
-13.9 |
80.6% /
52.9% |
11.1% /
17.6% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
11.8 /
10.0 |
52.4% /
34.5% |
9.5% /
27.6% |
4.7 /
3.3 |
57 /
46 |
55.6% /
32.6% |
70.2% /
41.3% |
41.2% /
37.7% |
9.2 /
5.8 |
5.3% /
0.0% |
36.8% /
63.0% |
20.5 /
46.1 |
| 6 |
SF |
33 – 30 W |
-1.4 |
37.5% /
52.0% |
6.3% /
8.0% |
0.0% /
4.3% |
8.4 /
9.1 |
52.4% /
66.7% |
14.3% /
13.3% |
5.5 /
5.8 |
69 /
55 |
44.4% /
67.4% |
42.0% /
60.0% |
55.5% /
54.1% |
7.6 /
7.3 |
0.0% /
3.6% |
30.4% /
54.5% |
32.0 /
25.9 |
| 8 |
@LA |
27 – 29 L |
2.6 |
45.5% /
43.9% |
9.1% /
12.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.7 /
6.9 |
63.2% /
42.9% |
21.1% /
28.6% |
5.6 /
3.9 |
52 /
76 |
58.1% /
43.6% |
51.9% /
43.4% |
69.4% /
51.3% |
6.9 /
5.5 |
1.9% /
0.0% |
36.5% /
46.1% |
21.1 /
31.7 |
| 9 |
@NE |
17 – 31 L |
-5.1 |
47.7% /
55.3% |
2.3% /
5.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.7 /
8.2 |
60.0% /
47.1% |
12.0% /
20.6% |
4.7 /
3.7 |
69 /
72 |
54.5% /
61.1% |
52.2% /
51.4% |
36.4% /
55.1% |
5.3 /
6.1 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
36.2% /
47.2% |
19.3 /
29.2 |
| 10 |
MIA |
31 – 12 W |
9.9 |
50.0% /
37.2% |
6.7% /
14.0% |
0.0% /
2.7% |
6.1 /
3.8 |
50.0% /
56.5% |
10.7% /
13.0% |
7.1 /
5.7 |
58 /
66 |
58.5% /
45.8% |
50.0% /
43.9% |
54.5% /
38.1% |
6.6 /
4.5 |
1.7% /
1.5% |
48.3% /
34.8% |
35.7 /
31.4 |
| 11 |
@SEA |
24 – 27 L |
4.5 |
45.7% /
44.1% |
14.3% /
8.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.9 /
6.0 |
38.5% /
47.4% |
15.4% /
7.9% |
3.7 /
4.6 |
48 /
72 |
48.6% /
48.0% |
43.8% /
45.8% |
55.2% /
42.5% |
7.5 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
1.4% |
27.1% /
52.8% |
30.4 /
22.3 |
| 12 |
@MIN |
17 – 24 L |
-1.9 |
46.9% /
64.1% |
12.5% /
5.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.4 /
8.3 |
52.6% /
29.0% |
15.8% /
19.4% |
4.3 /
3.0 |
51 /
70 |
57.5% /
52.9% |
49.0% /
48.6% |
37.4% /
42.1% |
5.0 /
6.0 |
2.0% /
0.0% |
37.3% /
44.3% |
26.6 /
35.6 |
| 13 |
ARI |
17 – 20 L |
-0.1 |
49.0% /
35.7% |
2.0% /
7.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.5 /
4.8 |
56.5% /
43.3% |
26.1% /
13.3% |
4.3 /
6.1 |
74 /
58 |
56.9% /
41.9% |
51.4% /
39.7% |
13.8% /
59.5% |
4.4 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
31.1% /
51.7% |
25.6 /
24.9 |
| 14 |
ATL |
34 – 20 W |
12.3 |
44.4% /
56.8% |
11.1% /
4.5% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
4.5 /
5.4 |
46.2% /
66.7% |
15.4% /
20.8% |
5.3 /
4.5 |
62 /
68 |
44.7% /
66.0% |
45.2% /
60.3% |
48.8% /
20.3% |
4.9 /
5.1 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
41.9% /
35.3% |
25.9 /
27.8 |
| 15 |
@CHI |
17 – 24 L |
-5.3 |
44.7% /
58.6% |
10.6% /
3.4% |
2.4% /
0.0% |
5.0 /
8.0 |
42.1% /
36.7% |
15.8% /
26.7% |
4.6 /
3.3 |
66 /
59 |
45.1% /
54.3% |
43.9% /
47.5% |
41.8% /
27.0% |
4.9 /
5.6 |
0.0% /
1.7% |
28.8% /
50.8% |
26.1 /
36.0 |
| 16 |
@NYJ |
44 – 38 W |
-6.7 |
50.8% /
62.2% |
6.8% /
5.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.0 /
8.7 |
61.9% /
35.0% |
14.3% /
35.0% |
6.1 /
2.4 |
80 /
57 |
56.3% /
56.8% |
53.8% /
52.6% |
49.0% /
37.3% |
6.8 /
6.5 |
1.3% /
0.0% |
26.3% /
35.1% |
25.5 /
34.1 |
Detroit Lions
@ 
Green Bay Packers