Game Analysis
**(*)CINCINNATI (+5/+3.5 -115) over Detroit
Andy Dalton’s splits are among the most drastic in the league and it is generally well known he performs better, relative to expectations, while at home and against non-common opponents. This week’s matchup against an NFC opponent in Cincinnati provides a rare intersection of these two trends. The Bengals are 18-5-2 in Dalton’s career at home against an opponent they didn’t face the year prior and he has thrown for 7.6 yards per pass play with a 46:19 touchdown to interception ratio in those games.
Cincinnati managed only 14 total points the last two weeks in part because A.J. Green was ineffective, averaging just 5.9 yards per target. Green faced a pair of good cornerbacks in Prince Amukamara and Xavier Rhodes and he’ll have a much easier match-up this week while lining up across from Darius Slay, who has allowed 1.15 yards per cover snap (57th out of 89 qualifying cornerbacks). I expect the Bengals passing offense to bounce back against a Lions defense allowing 6.7 yards per pass play (25th) with just a 5.3% sack rate (Dalton is also relatively better than other quarterbacks when not facing pressure).
Both teams have been ravaged by injury on the other side of the ball. Detroit’s offensive line is banged up with three starters listed as questionable and the Bengals will be without Adam Jones and Kevin Minter on the defensive side of the ball. However, the return of star linebacker Vontaze Burfict after missing two games with a concussion is much more impactful. Cincinnati allows just 4.8 yards per play with Burfict this season compared to 5.5 yards per play without him. Burfict’s fiery demeanor and ability to get players in the right position should make a big difference today and I expect the Cincy defense to go back to being one of the league’s best. My ratings favor the Bengals by 2 points with Burfict playing (it would have been pick if he were still out).
The line is inflated because Detroit is in a must win situation, as a loss would eliminate the Lions from playoff contention. However, if Detroit could play well when they needed to play well then they wouldn’t be in a must win situation to begin with. The line on these ‘must win’ teams in the last two weeks of the season are always inflated because the public loves to bet on such teams and they are too ignorant to understand that needing to win and being able to win are two different things. Years ago I started tracking by hand how teams that were in a win or out of the playoffs situation performed against the number when facing a team that had already been eliminated from playoff contention. The record is now 95-59-4 ATS betting against the must win teams in the final week of the season, which is not surprising to me given how much line value you get going against such teams. Teams out of playoff contention to not stop playing hard and the absence of pressure may actually help them play more freely. Regardless, the situation works because there is always line value in this situation backing the team that seemingly has nothing to play for.
In addition to that angle, Cincy also applies to a 31-3-3 ATS late-season home underdog situation and a 77-25-3 ATS situation that plays on teams that have scored in single-digits in each of their last two games – another reason to suspect that Dalton and company will play better this week. Detroit, meanwhile, applies to a 71-143-5 ATS last road game situation. I’ll take Cincinnati in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more now that Burfict is cleared to play. We got 2 of those Stars in a +5 early in the week figuring the line would go down and we’ll add the extra star at +3.5 at -115 odds (+3.5 at -120 is okay).
Pass
-
Pass Plays
39.2
37.6
-
Succ Pass Plays
45.6%
46.3%
-
Sack Rate
8.2%
5.2%
-
Int Rate
1.8%
3.0%
-
Deep Pass Rate
16.9%
21.5%
-
Big Pass Yards
43.3%
36.0%
-
NYPP
6.8
6.8
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.3
27.6
-
RB YPR
3.3
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
30.8%
21.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
35.4%
48.4%
-
Big Rush Yards
43.4%
36.1%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.4
4.0
Game
-
All Snaps
62.5
65.1
-
Early Down Succ
43.8%
49.7%
-
Succ Rate
41.8%
46.6%
-
Big Yards Rate
44.6%
39.0%
-
Yards Per Play
5.5
5.6
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.3%
1.2%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.0
27.5
-
Run Ratio
37.4%
41.9%
-
Starting Field Pos
29.3
27.5
-
Game Control
-1.1
1.1
Pass
-
Pass Plays
32.9
36.8
-
Succ Pass Plays
40.0%
40.8%
-
Sack Rate
7.9%
7.1%
-
Int Rate
2.5%
1.9%
-
Deep Pass Rate
17.3%
16.9%
-
Big Pass Yards
38.5%
40.2%
-
NYPP
5.8
6.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.4
32.0
-
RB YPR
3.3
3.9
-
Stuff Rate
24.0%
22.6%
-
Succ Rush Plays
38.0%
48.6%
-
Big Rush Yards
35.7%
34.7%
-
Yards Per Rush
3.4
4.1
Game
-
All Snaps
56.3
68.8
-
Early Down Succ
41.3%
45.4%
-
Succ Rate
38.3%
44.2%
-
Big Yards Rate
39.2%
39.6%
-
Yards Per Play
4.7
5.0
-
Fumble Lost Rate
1.3%
0.3%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
28.7
29.1
-
Run Ratio
41.3%
46.5%
-
Starting Field Pos
28.0
28.0
-
Game Control
-1.0
1.0
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
ARI |
35 – 23 W |
-2.7 |
47.6% /
42.9% |
2.4% /
2.0% |
2.4% /
6.3% |
6.8 /
5.4 |
35.7% /
38.9% |
21.4% /
16.7% |
3.0 /
2.5 |
70 /
67 |
42.3% /
41.2% |
42.9% /
41.8% |
27.4% /
29.4% |
5.3 /
4.6 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
40.0% /
26.9% |
36.6 /
28.5 |
| 2 |
@NYG |
24 – 10 W |
7.5 |
33.3% /
37.8% |
12.5% /
13.5% |
0.0% /
3.1% |
5.0 /
5.6 |
43.8% /
38.9% |
34.4% /
27.8% |
4.3 /
3.4 |
56 /
55 |
37.5% /
41.5% |
39.3% /
38.2% |
42.4% /
30.0% |
4.6 /
4.9 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
57.1% /
32.7% |
37.4 /
24.3 |
| 3 |
ATL |
26 – 30 L |
-6.3 |
40.4% /
48.6% |
4.3% /
5.4% |
0.0% /
8.6% |
5.4 /
7.5 |
31.6% /
48.3% |
26.3% /
13.8% |
3.7 /
5.2 |
66 /
66 |
41.5% /
50.9% |
37.9% /
48.5% |
31.8% /
34.7% |
4.9 /
6.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
28.8% /
43.9% |
29.7 /
27.8 |
| 4 |
@MIN |
14 – 7 W |
2.8 |
40.5% /
40.6% |
16.2% /
6.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.2 /
6.2 |
32.4% /
63.6% |
29.4% /
9.1% |
2.9 /
4.0 |
71 /
54 |
43.4% /
55.8% |
36.6% /
50.0% |
31.1% /
42.3% |
3.6 /
5.3 |
0.0% /
5.6% |
47.9% /
40.7% |
30.0 /
25.2 |
| 5 |
CAR |
24 – 27 L |
-6.3 |
51.2% /
50.0% |
14.6% /
8.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
4.7 /
9.3 |
40.0% /
17.6% |
40.0% /
32.4% |
3.3 /
0.9 |
56 /
70 |
52.4% /
37.0% |
48.2% /
34.3% |
53.7% /
53.7% |
4.3 /
5.2 |
1.8% /
0.0% |
26.8% /
48.6% |
29.8 /
31.7 |
| 6 |
@NO |
38 – 52 L |
-15.8 |
35.1% /
45.2% |
8.8% /
0.0% |
5.8% /
6.5% |
4.9 /
6.0 |
15.8% /
45.9% |
36.8% /
13.5% |
3.5 /
5.2 |
76 /
68 |
24.6% /
50.9% |
30.3% /
45.6% |
53.3% /
51.7% |
4.6 /
5.6 |
2.6% /
1.5% |
25.0% /
54.4% |
27.6 /
29.4 |
| 8 |
PIT |
15 – 20 L |
-1.9 |
48.9% /
41.9% |
4.3% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
3.2% |
8.7 /
10.2 |
50.0% /
41.9% |
27.3% /
22.6% |
3.2 /
2.5 |
69 /
62 |
58.2% /
41.9% |
49.3% /
41.9% |
58.1% /
53.2% |
7.0 /
6.4 |
1.4% /
1.6% |
31.9% /
50.0% |
22.8 /
24.8 |
| 9 |
@GB |
30 – 17 W |
9.8 |
64.7% /
43.9% |
2.9% /
7.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
10.4 /
5.7 |
24.2% /
70.6% |
45.5% /
11.8% |
1.9 /
4.6 |
67 /
58 |
40.7% /
59.6% |
44.8% /
51.7% |
43.2% /
25.4% |
6.2 /
5.4 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
49.3% /
29.3% |
32.5 /
25.8 |
| 10 |
CLE |
38 – 24 W |
0.7 |
36.7% /
29.5% |
13.3% /
9.1% |
3.8% /
2.5% |
8.0 /
4.8 |
42.9% /
60.6% |
28.6% /
30.3% |
5.0 /
6.1 |
51 /
77 |
41.7% /
41.4% |
39.2% /
42.9% |
73.8% /
48.9% |
6.8 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
41.2% /
42.9% |
28.8 /
28.4 |
| 11 |
@CHI |
27 – 24 W |
-0.0 |
52.9% /
48.4% |
8.8% /
3.2% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.4 /
5.7 |
40.0% /
60.0% |
40.0% /
13.3% |
2.6 /
7.4 |
59 /
61 |
53.2% /
56.9% |
47.5% /
54.1% |
39.4% /
45.5% |
6.0 /
6.5 |
1.7% /
1.6% |
42.4% /
49.2% |
24.0 /
23.9 |
| 12 |
MIN |
23 – 30 L |
-9.0 |
34.2% /
59.4% |
7.9% /
6.3% |
2.9% /
0.0% |
6.2 /
8.5 |
46.7% /
35.6% |
20.0% /
31.1% |
3.5 /
3.1 |
53 /
77 |
41.5% /
50.9% |
37.7% /
45.5% |
47.4% /
50.4% |
5.5 /
5.3 |
1.9% /
0.0% |
28.3% /
58.4% |
29.2 /
32.1 |
| 13 |
@BAL |
20 – 44 L |
-9.9 |
48.6% /
55.6% |
8.1% /
0.0% |
5.9% /
0.0% |
7.9 /
7.5 |
20.8% /
46.4% |
37.5% /
28.6% |
3.3 /
3.6 |
61 /
64 |
39.6% /
56.0% |
37.7% /
51.6% |
60.8% /
38.8% |
6.1 /
5.8 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
39.3% /
43.8% |
23.2 /
36.6 |
| 14 |
@TB |
24 – 21 W |
4.8 |
61.4% /
58.5% |
0.0% /
7.3% |
4.5% /
5.3% |
8.7 /
6.5 |
33.3% /
62.1% |
38.9% /
13.8% |
2.9 /
4.6 |
62 /
70 |
54.9% /
63.3% |
53.2% /
60.0% |
34.8% /
25.4% |
7.0 /
5.7 |
1.6% /
4.3% |
29.0% /
41.4% |
30.4 /
22.2 |
| 15 |
CHI |
20 – 10 W |
10.6 |
43.2% /
45.8% |
10.8% /
4.2% |
0.0% /
6.5% |
5.5 /
6.4 |
38.1% /
46.7% |
4.8% /
33.3% |
4.4 /
2.9 |
58 /
63 |
41.9% /
48.0% |
41.4% /
46.0% |
27.9% /
16.6% |
5.1 /
5.5 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
36.2% /
23.8% |
28.0 /
23.9 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2017 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
BAL |
0 – 20 L |
-11.0 |
30.6% /
27.8% |
13.9% /
5.6% |
12.9% /
5.9% |
4.0 /
6.2 |
36.4% /
45.2% |
22.7% /
19.0% |
3.5 /
3.7 |
58 /
60 |
34.1% /
39.1% |
32.8% /
40.0% |
45.7% /
32.1% |
3.8 /
4.5 |
1.7% /
0.0% |
37.9% /
70.0% |
30.8 /
32.2 |
| 2 |
HOU |
9 – 13 L |
-1.4 |
31.6% /
40.7% |
7.9% /
11.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
5.6 /
3.6 |
54.2% /
51.4% |
16.7% /
31.4% |
3.4 /
4.8 |
62 /
62 |
44.4% /
53.2% |
40.3% /
46.8% |
41.0% /
39.1% |
4.8 /
4.3 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
38.7% /
56.5% |
31.2 /
24.1 |
| 3 |
@GB |
24 – 27 L |
6.6 |
53.3% /
43.8% |
10.0% /
12.5% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
6.4 /
5.8 |
32.3% /
47.1% |
29.0% /
29.4% |
3.6 /
3.8 |
61 /
65 |
46.8% /
44.0% |
42.6% /
44.6% |
31.8% /
58.1% |
5.0 /
5.3 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
50.8% /
26.2% |
26.5 /
25.8 |
| 4 |
@CLE |
31 – 7 W |
16.5 |
60.6% /
29.5% |
9.1% /
4.5% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
8.0 /
3.9 |
40.0% /
41.2% |
26.7% /
35.3% |
2.9 /
2.6 |
63 /
61 |
50.0% /
32.6% |
50.8% /
32.8% |
43.4% /
33.0% |
5.6 /
3.5 |
1.6% /
0.0% |
47.6% /
27.9% |
28.3 /
26.4 |
| 5 |
BUF |
20 – 16 W |
3.1 |
43.2% /
32.6% |
2.7% /
14.0% |
5.6% /
2.7% |
8.7 /
3.2 |
22.6% /
45.8% |
22.6% /
20.8% |
2.2 /
3.4 |
68 /
67 |
37.0% /
38.8% |
33.8% /
37.3% |
47.7% /
22.2% |
5.8 /
3.3 |
1.5% /
0.0% |
45.6% /
35.8% |
25.6 /
34.8 |
| 7 |
@PIT |
14 – 29 L |
-7.2 |
35.3% /
48.0% |
11.8% /
0.0% |
6.7% /
0.0% |
3.2 /
10.7 |
22.2% /
37.0% |
38.9% /
17.4% |
4.0 /
3.4 |
52 /
71 |
32.4% /
49.1% |
30.8% /
40.8% |
35.6% /
56.5% |
3.5 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
34.6% /
64.8% |
29.1 /
29.4 |
| 8 |
IND |
24 – 23 W |
-0.5 |
43.8% /
39.5% |
9.4% /
9.3% |
0.0% /
2.6% |
6.8 /
5.0 |
30.4% /
60.7% |
30.4% /
10.7% |
2.6 /
4.1 |
55 /
71 |
40.0% /
48.1% |
38.2% /
47.9% |
46.0% /
18.1% |
5.1 /
4.7 |
3.6% /
0.0% |
41.8% /
39.4% |
32.7 /
31.4 |
| 9 |
@JAC |
7 – 23 L |
-7.2 |
30.0% /
55.3% |
10.0% /
0.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
6.8 |
15.8% /
41.5% |
21.1% /
12.2% |
1.6 /
3.7 |
39 /
79 |
29.6% /
44.1% |
23.1% /
48.1% |
52.7% /
32.8% |
3.8 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
48.7% /
51.9% |
20.2 /
21.1 |
| 10 |
@TEN |
20 – 24 L |
-2.6 |
38.9% /
43.8% |
2.8% /
8.3% |
0.0% /
2.3% |
7.1 /
4.9 |
50.0% /
52.8% |
28.6% /
16.7% |
3.8 /
5.0 |
50 /
84 |
48.7% /
46.4% |
42.0% /
47.6% |
51.0% /
34.6% |
6.2 /
5.0 |
4.0% /
1.2% |
28.0% /
42.9% |
30.9 /
26.1 |
| 11 |
@DEN |
20 – 17 W |
4.4 |
37.0% /
42.2% |
7.4% /
6.7% |
0.0% /
2.4% |
5.2 /
5.1 |
32.1% /
50.0% |
35.7% /
23.5% |
1.8 /
3.3 |
55 /
79 |
33.3% /
41.1% |
34.5% /
45.6% |
30.2% /
15.8% |
3.5 /
4.3 |
0.0% /
1.3% |
50.9% /
43.0% |
33.2 /
31.5 |
| 12 |
CLE |
30 – 16 W |
8.7 |
55.2% /
34.3% |
3.4% /
11.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.2 /
6.7 |
50.0% /
54.8% |
21.9% /
25.8% |
4.8 /
5.5 |
61 /
66 |
58.3% /
43.8% |
52.5% /
43.9% |
36.1% /
70.1% |
6.0 /
6.1 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
52.5% /
47.0% |
33.4 /
23.7 |
| 13 |
PIT |
20 – 23 L |
7.5 |
44.7% /
46.3% |
5.3% /
2.4% |
0.0% /
2.5% |
5.9 /
6.9 |
72.7% /
54.5% |
9.1% /
18.2% |
5.9 /
4.2 |
60 /
63 |
56.5% /
52.0% |
55.0% /
49.2% |
26.1% /
36.9% |
5.9 /
5.9 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
36.7% /
34.9% |
21.6 /
21.6 |
| 14 |
CHI |
7 – 33 L |
-9.2 |
30.0% /
54.5% |
7.5% /
6.1% |
2.7% /
0.0% |
4.1 /
7.6 |
53.8% /
55.3% |
7.7% /
31.6% |
5.4 /
6.1 |
53 /
71 |
38.5% /
58.6% |
35.8% /
54.9% |
33.3% /
43.6% |
4.4 /
6.8 |
1.9% /
0.0% |
24.5% /
53.5% |
23.5 /
30.9 |
| 15 |
@MIN |
7 – 34 L |
-21.4 |
25.8% /
33.3% |
9.7% /
7.4% |
7.1% /
4.0% |
3.7 /
8.2 |
20.0% /
43.2% |
25.0% /
24.3% |
2.3 /
3.4 |
51 /
64 |
28.6% /
44.7% |
23.5% /
39.1% |
28.0% /
61.9% |
3.2 /
5.5 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
39.2% /
57.8% |
24.7 /
33.2 |
Detroit Lions
@ 
Cincinnati Bengals