Detroit Lions @

Chicago Bears

Sun, Nov 10
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 265
Odds: Chicago Bears -6.5, Total: 39

Game Analysis

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CHICAGO (-6.5/-7) vs Detroit

Matt Stafford is out on Sunday. Backup Jeff Driskel threw for just 4.6 yards per pass play in Cincinnati last season but he was an effective runner, adding 7.5 points on the ground in just over 200 drop-backs. Our metrics indicate Driskel played about 4.3 points per game worse than Stafford’s performance thus far in 2019. However, we are making a 5.5-point adjustment to Detroit’s offense today due to Driskel’s lack of reps with the first team and he likely won’t be able to push the ball downfield as much as Stafford, which will change Detroit’s game-plan. The Bears have struggled this season but the pass defense is still rated in the top 10. Khalil Mack has recorded a 26% pass rush win rate (8th) and will wreak havoc against Taylor Decker and Rick Wagner, who both are in the bottom 20 among qualifying tackles in pass block efficiency. Driskel will likely struggle in the pass game but the extra pressure on the pocket could force him to scramble more, which is likely a positive.

Chicago is the only offense in the NFL targeting running backs on more than 30% of passes, which could pay dividends in this matchup as the Lions rank 27th defending pass-catchers out of the backfield. Mitch Trubisky will need Tarik Cohen and David Montgomery to be effective given that Pro Bowl cornerback Darius Slay will likely neutralize Chicago’s top receiver Allen Robinson.

A week ago, this number was Bears by 3.5 but now it’s moved through the key number of 3 after an uninspiring performance from Chicago’s offense. We still don’t think the adjustment is enough as our model favors Chicago by 5.6 points with a predicted total of 39.4 points. There are some situations favor Detroit here and I’d lean with the Lions at +7 or more.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Lions
  • Bears
DET
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 38.6 40.9
  • Succ Pass Plays 48.7% 47.3%
  • Sack Rate 5.7% 3.9%
  • Int Rate 1.8% 0.9%
  • Deep Pass Rate 25.9% 25.6%
  • Big Pass Yards 52.8% 48.6%
  • NYPP 7.6 7.3



Rush


  • Rush Plays 26.0 28.6
  • RB YPR 3.6 4.4
  • Stuff Rate 26.6% 13.6%
  • Succ Rush Plays 46.2% 53.6%
  • Big Rush Yards 33.8% 40.8%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.6 4.7




Game

  • All Snaps 64.6 69.5
  • Early Down Succ 49.9% 50.4%
  • Succ Rate 47.7% 49.4%
  • Big Yards Rate 48.7% 45.8%
  • Yards Per Play 6.0 6.1
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.1% 1.7%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.9 27.1
  • Run Ratio 40.2% 41.4%
  • Starting Field Pos 29.0 24.3
  • Game Control 2.8 -2.8
 
  • Points 25.5 27.1
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