Game Analysis
Lean – Detroit (+6.5) over CHICAGO
Chicago has been the NFL’s surprise team, as the Bears lead the NFC North and rank 3rd-overall in average scoring margin. However, they’ve done it against the league’s easiest schedule by a wide margin. The Bears haven’t beaten a team above .500 and 4 of their 5 wins have come versus the Bills, Jets, Buccaneers, and Cardinals. Chicago’s 41-9 win last week was not actually all too impressive as they gained just 4.1 yards per play and Buffalo with Nathan Peterman under center are the worst team in the league by more than 5 points according to our metrics. The Bears managed only 2.6 yards per rush in their first game without All-Pro guard Kyle Long and they may continue struggling in the ground game against a Lions rush defense that’s improved from 27th before trading for Snacks Harrison to 19th the last two weeks. Harrison is making his presence known and is now just 3 run stops off the team lead despite playing in only 2 games. Ziggy Ansah is also providing a boost to Detroit’s defense returning from injury last week. Ansah ranked 15th in pass rush efficiency in 2017 and has recorded 2 sacks from just 20 pass rushes in limited action this season.
The Lions offensive line allowed 10 sacks to Minnesota last Sunday and now will line up across from another talented front with Khalil Mack expected to return after missing the last 2 games. To make matters worse, it looks like Pro Bowl guard T.J. Lang won’t be available opening it up for Akiem Hicks to have a big day on the inside. Detroit may also be without All-Pro cornerback Darius Slay as he nurses a knee injury.
The Lions could’ve had some value if it weren’t for those key injuries, but as it stands, our model favors Chicago by just 5.2 points and the Bears apply to a 21-62-1 ATS home favorite situation.
Pass
-
Pass Plays
38.1
28.3
-
Succ Pass Plays
51.5%
56.8%
-
Sack Rate
8.3%
10.3%
-
Int Rate
1.9%
1.6%
-
Deep Pass Rate
13.8%
20.2%
-
Big Pass Yards
36.2%
39.3%
-
NYPP
7.1
7.7
Rush
-
Rush Plays
23.9
29.0
-
RB YPR
4.1
5.2
-
Stuff Rate
20.6%
20.3%
-
Succ Rush Plays
40.8%
48.0%
-
Big Rush Yards
32.3%
47.3%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.1
5.1
Game
-
All Snaps
62.0
57.3
-
Early Down Succ
48.2%
53.8%
-
Succ Rate
47.1%
52.0%
-
Big Yards Rate
37.7%
43.2%
-
Yards Per Play
5.8
6.2
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
1.1%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
30.4
30.3
-
Run Ratio
39.6%
49.8%
-
Starting Field Pos
25.9
28.2
-
Game Control
-0.8
0.8
Pass
-
Pass Plays
34.5
39.4
-
Succ Pass Plays
47.9%
44.5%
-
Sack Rate
6.1%
7.7%
-
Int Rate
2.6%
4.8%
-
Deep Pass Rate
24.5%
16.3%
-
Big Pass Yards
42.7%
41.6%
-
NYPP
6.9
6.1
Rush
-
Rush Plays
29.9
23.3
-
RB YPR
3.6
3.2
-
Stuff Rate
18.4%
24.1%
-
Succ Rush Plays
50.2%
39.5%
-
Big Rush Yards
44.1%
28.4%
-
Yards Per Rush
4.3
3.6
Game
-
All Snaps
64.4
62.6
-
Early Down Succ
51.8%
44.3%
-
Succ Rate
48.5%
42.8%
-
Big Yards Rate
43.2%
39.0%
-
Yards Per Play
5.6
5.1
-
Fumble Lost Rate
0.8%
1.4%
-
Time Per Play (sec)
29.8
28.4
-
Run Ratio
47.1%
37.1%
-
Starting Field Pos
30.7
26.7
-
Game Control
7.4
-7.4
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
NYJ |
17 – 48 L |
-11.9 |
44.2% /
65.2% |
0.0% /
8.7% |
9.6% /
4.8% |
5.8 /
7.8 |
37.5% /
32.6% |
25.0% /
9.3% |
2.5 /
4.0 |
68 /
66 |
51.0% /
53.8% |
42.6% /
43.9% |
37.9% /
55.1% |
5.0 /
5.4 |
0.0% /
1.5% |
23.5% /
65.2% |
23.0 /
40.7 |
| 2 |
@SF |
27 – 30 L |
-5.3 |
43.6% /
53.1% |
3.6% /
18.8% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
6.0 /
4.9 |
44.4% /
44.8% |
5.6% /
24.1% |
5.4 /
6.6 |
73 /
61 |
44.6% /
56.3% |
43.8% /
49.2% |
38.4% /
48.7% |
5.8 /
5.7 |
1.4% /
0.0% |
24.7% /
47.5% |
24.8 /
32.3 |
| 3 |
NE |
26 – 10 W |
8.1 |
61.1% /
42.9% |
2.8% /
7.1% |
2.9% /
3.8% |
7.1 /
4.3 |
45.5% /
57.9% |
21.2% /
21.1% |
4.8 /
4.7 |
69 /
47 |
54.5% /
56.8% |
53.6% /
48.9% |
36.7% /
19.1% |
6.0 /
4.4 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
47.8% /
40.4% |
30.2 /
26.4 |
| 4 |
@DAL |
24 – 26 L |
-1.7 |
54.5% /
50.0% |
9.1% /
10.0% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
8.7 /
7.7 |
40.0% /
55.6% |
25.0% /
22.2% |
4.8 /
5.1 |
53 /
66 |
47.6% /
56.9% |
49.1% /
53.0% |
64.1% /
51.6% |
7.2 /
6.3 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
37.7% /
54.5% |
23.8 /
21.8 |
| 5 |
GB |
31 – 23 W |
13.9 |
52.9% /
80.6% |
17.6% /
11.1% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
10.0 /
11.8 |
34.5% /
52.4% |
27.6% /
9.5% |
3.3 /
4.7 |
46 /
57 |
32.6% /
55.6% |
41.3% /
70.2% |
37.7% /
41.2% |
5.8 /
9.2 |
0.0% /
5.3% |
63.0% /
36.8% |
46.1 /
20.5 |
| 7 |
@MIA |
32 – 21 W |
8.1 |
60.9% /
48.6% |
4.3% /
11.4% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
9.1 /
6.1 |
54.1% /
47.4% |
21.6% /
26.3% |
6.8 /
5.6 |
60 /
54 |
66.0% /
46.5% |
56.7% /
48.1% |
60.8% /
40.4% |
7.7 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
61.7% /
35.2% |
23.0 /
25.2 |
| 8 |
SEA |
14 – 28 L |
-8.8 |
55.8% /
57.9% |
7.0% /
10.5% |
2.5% /
0.0% |
6.9 /
12.5 |
30.8% /
50.0% |
23.1% /
23.8% |
2.6 /
4.2 |
56 /
61 |
47.8% /
53.2% |
50.0% /
52.5% |
26.0% /
48.7% |
5.9 /
6.8 |
3.6% /
0.0% |
23.2% /
68.9% |
15.0 /
25.8 |
| 9 |
@MIN |
9 – 24 L |
-8.8 |
39.1% /
56.5% |
21.7% /
4.3% |
0.0% /
4.5% |
3.1 /
6.7 |
40.0% /
43.5% |
16.0% /
26.1% |
2.7 /
5.6 |
71 /
46 |
41.2% /
51.4% |
39.4% /
50.0% |
0.0% /
41.0% |
3.0 /
6.2 |
1.4% /
2.2% |
35.2% /
50.0% |
21.7 /
32.6 |
* game log stats denoted as Off/Def
| 2018 Game Log |
PASS |
RUSH |
GAMES |
| Wk |
Opp |
Score |
Game Control |
Succ Pass Plays |
Sack Rate |
Int Rate |
NYPP |
Succ Rush Plays |
Stuff Rate |
Yds per Rush |
All Snaps |
Early Down Succ |
Succ Rate |
Big Yards Rate |
Yds per Play |
Fum Lost Rate |
Run Ratio |
Starting Field Pos |
| 1 |
@GB |
23 – 24 L |
9.5 |
35.9% /
43.9% |
10.3% /
9.8% |
0.0% /
2.7% |
4.0 /
7.3 |
59.3% /
27.8% |
18.5% /
16.7% |
5.1 /
3.8 |
66 /
59 |
48.9% /
40.0% |
45.5% /
39.0% |
38.1% /
59.5% |
4.5 /
6.3 |
1.5% /
1.7% |
40.9% /
30.5% |
25.7 /
30.7 |
| 2 |
SEA |
24 – 17 W |
7.4 |
52.8% /
43.6% |
5.6% /
15.4% |
5.9% /
3.0% |
5.1 /
5.2 |
48.3% /
45.5% |
13.8% /
13.6% |
3.0 /
3.4 |
65 /
61 |
55.1% /
44.9% |
50.8% /
44.3% |
6.3% /
23.2% |
4.2 /
4.5 |
0.0% /
1.6% |
44.6% /
36.1% |
33.6 /
24.5 |
| 3 |
@ARI |
16 – 14 W |
-7.2 |
42.1% /
40.0% |
7.9% /
13.3% |
2.9% /
11.5% |
5.1 /
5.6 |
54.8% /
33.3% |
22.6% /
27.8% |
3.9 /
2.9 |
69 /
48 |
50.0% /
40.5% |
47.8% /
37.5% |
37.7% /
58.8% |
4.6 /
4.6 |
1.4% /
2.1% |
44.9% /
37.5% |
27.8 /
32.8 |
| 4 |
TB |
48 – 10 W |
27.7 |
66.7% /
45.2% |
3.7% /
9.5% |
0.0% /
7.9% |
12.7 /
6.0 |
51.5% /
38.9% |
27.3% /
22.2% |
4.3 /
3.3 |
60 /
60 |
64.6% /
45.7% |
58.3% /
43.3% |
72.6% /
32.8% |
8.1 /
5.2 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
55.0% /
30.0% |
27.5 /
23.8 |
| 6 |
@MIA |
28 – 31 L |
-0.3 |
54.5% /
48.8% |
6.1% /
0.0% |
3.2% /
4.7% |
9.2 /
8.8 |
43.8% /
58.1% |
9.4% /
9.7% |
5.2 /
5.2 |
65 /
74 |
48.0% /
53.4% |
49.2% /
52.7% |
60.7% /
48.2% |
7.2 /
7.3 |
3.1% /
1.4% |
49.2% /
41.9% |
25.3 /
28.7 |
| 7 |
NE |
31 – 38 L |
-3.8 |
43.1% /
62.2% |
3.9% /
2.7% |
4.1% /
2.8% |
6.3 /
7.4 |
52.0% /
63.0% |
12.0% /
22.2% |
5.4 /
4.0 |
76 /
64 |
44.1% /
66.0% |
46.1% /
62.5% |
44.6% /
29.7% |
6.0 /
6.0 |
0.0% /
3.1% |
32.9% /
42.2% |
32.9 /
25.6 |
| 8 |
NYJ |
24 – 10 W |
6.9 |
45.2% /
36.7% |
6.5% /
3.3% |
0.0% /
0.0% |
7.0 /
5.0 |
52.9% /
20.8% |
14.7% /
37.5% |
5.3 /
2.4 |
65 /
54 |
51.9% /
30.8% |
49.2% /
29.6% |
46.3% /
20.3% |
6.1 /
3.8 |
0.0% /
0.0% |
52.3% /
44.4% |
28.5 /
22.0 |
| 9 |
@BUF |
41 – 9 W |
18.7 |
42.9% /
35.8% |
4.8% /
7.5% |
5.0% /
6.1% |
6.0 /
3.2 |
39.3% /
28.6% |
28.6% /
42.9% |
2.4 /
3.5 |
49 /
81 |
51.5% /
33.3% |
40.8% /
33.3% |
39.4% /
39.4% |
3.9 /
3.3 |
0.0% /
1.2% |
57.1% /
34.6% |
43.9 /
25.9 |
Detroit Lions
@ 
Chicago Bears