Game Analysis

Detroit (-2.5) vs CAROLINA

· Ben McAdoo’s offense has no answers versus the blitz which will be a problem for Sam Darnold on Sunday. The Panthers have just one TD all season when defenses send extra pass rushers. The Lions have a 32% blitz rate ranking 6th-highest in the NFL.

· Carolina’s offense only has a 40% pass play rate in three games with Sam Darnold as the starter and they will run it as much as possible versus Detroit’s defense allowing -0.010 EPA/rush (25th).

· Jared Goff is 5-9 ATS in his career in adverse weather conditions (cold or wet) with his teams scoring 17 or fewer points in more than half of those starts. It will be 24 degrees Fahrenheit on Sunday in Carolina.

· Lions WR Josh Reynolds has a 58% success rate (14th) but he will be shut down by CB Jaycee Horn, who ranks 15th in coverage grade by PFF.

· Panthers nickelback Myles Hartsfield is allowing 1.24 yards per slot cover snap and he will not be able to hold up on the inside versus slot receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, who has a 61% success rate (5th).

· Our model makes Detroit a 0.9-point favorite, with a predicted total of 45.9, and the Lions apply to a 74-140-8 ATS letdown situation that plays against teams coming off a win by 3 points or fewer. Obviously, I used Carolina in my pool and I’d Lean with the Panthers at +3 or more, which would put them over the 52.4% chance of covering needed to break even at -110 odds (54.1% bet at +3).