Detroit Lions @

Carolina Panthers

Sun, Nov 22
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 455
Odds: Carolina Panthers +2.5, Total: 47

Game Analysis

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Lean – Detroit (-2.5) vs CAROLINA

Teddy Bridgewater has been downgraded to OUT and it looks like backup PJ Walker under center for the Panthers. Walker will likely be looking to find Mike Davis out of the backfield. The Panthers are throwing to RBs on more than a fourth of their passing attempts and the Lions have been terrible defending receivers out of the backfield – surrendering nearly 7 yards per target to opposing running backs. However, Detroit’s 24th-rated pass defense could improve on the backend. It seems CB Jeffrey Okudah has lost his starting spot, which is a boost considering that the 3rd overall pick is the only qualifying cornerback surrendering more than 2 yards per cover snap.

Lions’ big-play receiver Kenny Golladay is out again and Matt Stafford has averaged a half yard per pass play more in the games Golladay has been healthy this season. To make matters worse, the Lions will also be without Danny Amendola, who is averaging 1.88 yards per slot route run (4th). The cluster injury of Golladay and Amendola is worth nearly 2 points. Detroit rookie RB D’Andre Swift is also out and he’s been forcing missed tackles at twice the rate of Adrian Peterson this season. Marvin Hall is averaging over 2 yards per route run filling in for Golladay and CB Donte Jackson is out so I expect Stafford to look towards Hall on Sunday. Backup CB Troy Pride is surrendering 1.48 yards per cover snap, which ranks 63rd out of 77 qualifying cornerbacks.

Our model favors the Lions by 4.5 points with a predicted total of 45.7 with Bridgewater out.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Lions
  • Panthers
DET
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 38.4 37.1
  • Succ Pass Plays 48.0% 52.6%
  • Sack Rate 6.3% 4.1%
  • Int Rate 2.3% 1.6%
  • Deep Pass Rate 17.5% 21.5%
  • Big Pass Yards 39.6% 40.5%
  • NYPP 6.8 7.2



Rush


  • Rush Plays 24.4 30.3
  • RB YPR 3.9 4.3
  • Stuff Rate 23.4% 15.8%
  • Succ Rush Plays 45.8% 53.9%
  • Big Rush Yards 42.4% 39.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.0 4.5




Game

  • All Snaps 62.9 67.4
  • Early Down Succ 49.1% 55.3%
  • Succ Rate 47.3% 53.3%
  • Big Yards Rate 40.6% 40.3%
  • Yards Per Play 5.7 6.0
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.2% 0.5%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.1 28.0
  • Run Ratio 38.6% 45.4%
  • Starting Field Pos 29.9 25.3
  • Game Control -0.1 0.1
 
  • Points 25.2 29.7
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