Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **BALTIMORE (-2.5) over Detroit

1-Star Best Bet – *Over (42)

· Lamar Jackson had 13 carries for 62 yards last week against the Titans. He has 3 games with 50+ rushing yards this year and has 50 career games with at least 50 yards on the ground, putting him just four games shy of Michael Vick’s record.

· Detroit defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn struggles versus mobile quarterbacks. The Lions are one of 2 defenses since the start of 2021, when Glenn took the job, to surrender more than 1000 rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks.

· It’s not just a matter of volume as the quarterbacks have gotten their yards on the ground efficiently against Glenn’s defense. Detroit has allowed 5.5 yards per carry to quarterbacks since 2021 (31st).

· Baltimore’s five starting offensive linemen were healthy for the first time since week 1 last week, and they were one of only four lines that didn’t allow a sack or quarterback hit in week 6.

· Ravens RT Morgan Moses was back in uniform against Tennessee, and he ranks 7th in pass blocking efficiency. Moses will shut down Lions edge defender Aidan Hutchinson, who has 36 pressures (3rd).

· The Lions’ secondary is without starters cornerback Emmanuel Moseley and safety CJ Gardner-Johnson. Ravens TE Mark Andrews is averaging 0.48 EPA/target (3rd) and he will have a favorable matchup against backup safety Kerby Joseph.

· Detroit TE Sam LaPorta is gaining 1.93 yards per route run (2nd) but Jared Goff will have to look elsewhere as Baltimore’s defense is allowing just a 37% success rate to tight ends (3rd).

· Our model favors the Ravens by 3.3 points, with a predicted total of 46.6 points. The matchups significantly favor Baltimore and Detroit applies to a 36-89-3 ATS letdown situation that plays against road teams off 3 or more consecutive wins and covers when visiting a winning team.

Baltimore is a 2-Star Best Bet at -2.5 to -115 odds, and 1-Star at -3 -110 or better. The Over is a 1-Star Best Bet at 43 points or less.