Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

Lean – Under (55) – ARIZONA (-5.5) vs Detroit

The Lions are the first team in NFL history to lose four straight games in which they led by 10 points or more at some point in the game. This is a problem that has persisted under head coach Matt Patrcia and we can even look to the last time these two teams faced off to see Detroit’s tendency to collapse. In week 1 last year, the Lions blew a 24-6 lead in the fourth quarter to the Cardinals.

Matt Stafford’s average of 9.1 average air yards per attempt is nowhere near the league-high 11.6 mark he posted last season but he will get star WR Kenny Golladay back this week and Golladay led the NFL with 36 deep targets in 2019. Arizona is still sorting out the safety position as the eighth overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, Isaiah Simmons, saw only 7 snaps last week against Washington. Stafford is almost certain to let it rip downfield on Sunday with his main deep threat making his season debut.

Cardinals’ quarterback Kyler Murray has totaled 158 rushing yards and three scores on 21 carries so far in 2020, showing his legs are every bit as dangerous as his arm. The Lions consistently are near the top of the league in use of man defense, which should set up a ton of scrambling lanes for Murray in this matchup.

Kliff Kingsbury’s spread offense provides a lot of opportunities for running backs using the inside zone schemes. The Cardinals have a top 10 ground game again this season by our metrics and the Lions have been the worst rush defense thus far.

Our model makes Arizona a 4.7-point favorite with a predicted total of 51.7 points and I’ll lean under with the total having ballooned up to 55 points (opened at 51.5 points).

Team Stats
Game Log

Lions
Cardinals

DET

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 40.0 34.0
Succ Pass Plays 48.6% 50.4%
Sack Rate 6.6% 3.0%
Int Rate 2.7% 0.0%
Deep Pass Rate 19.3% 28.3%
Big Pass Yards 41.8% 42.4%
NYPP 6.3 6.6

Rush

Rush Plays 25.0 31.5
RB YPR 4.5 6.2
Stuff Rate 14.0% 11.4%
Succ Rush Plays 53.4% 58.9%
Big Rush Yards 47.0% 51.8%
Yards Per Rush 4.5 6.4

Game

All Snaps 65.0 65.5
Early Down Succ 53.0% 59.2%
Succ Rate 50.2% 54.2%
Big Yards Rate 43.7% 47.0%
Yards Per Play 5.6 6.5
Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 25.8 29.3
Run Ratio 38.2% 48.1%
Starting Field Pos 23.5 28.5
Game Control 0.1 -0.1

Points 22.0 34.5

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	CHI	23 – 27 L	5.9	51.2% / 45.9%	2.3% / 2.7%	2.4% / 0.0%	6.7 / 5.8	44.8% / 60.7%	13.8% / 14.3%	4.8 / 5.3	72 / 65	52.7% / 59.6%	48.6% / 52.3%	50.2% / 35.8%	5.9 / 5.6	0.0% / 0.0%	40.3% / 43.1%	27.0 / 29.0
2	@GB	21 – 42 L	-5.7	45.9% / 54.8%	10.8% / 3.2%	3.0% / 0.0%	5.9 / 7.4	61.9% / 57.1%	14.3% / 8.6%	4.2 / 7.4	58 / 66	53.3% / 58.8%	51.7% / 56.1%	37.1% / 58.2%	5.3 / 7.4	0.0% / 0.0%	36.2% / 53.0%	20.0 / 28.0

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@SF	24 – 20 W	-2.5	35.7% / 41.7%	4.8% / 8.3%	2.5% / 0.0%	5.3 / 6.8	50.0% / 48.0%	16.7% / 20.0%	5.0 / 4.9	78 / 61	41.0% / 52.1%	42.3% / 44.3%	36.4% / 42.9%	5.2 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	46.2% / 41.0%	24.8 / 32.0
2	WAS	30 – 15 W	15.0	46.3% / 37.8%	7.3% / 10.8%	2.6% / 0.0%	6.8 / 5.4	50.0% / 60.9%	15.6% / 17.4%	5.0 / 5.1	73 / 60	48.1% / 48.9%	47.9% / 46.7%	50.7% / 44.3%	6.0 / 5.3	0.0% / 3.3%	43.8% / 38.3%	24.6 / 27.5

Detroit Lions @

Arizona Cardinals

Sun, Sep 27

1:25 PM Pacific

Game Analysis