Denver Broncos @

Seattle Seahawks

Mon, Sep 12
5:15 PM Pacific
Rotation: 481
Odds: Seattle Seahawks +6.5, Total: 44.5

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

1-Star Best Bet – *Over (43) – Denver (-6.5) vs SEATTLE

· The market has Denver’s offense near league-average after adding Russell Wilson which is way too low. 

· Wilson suffered mallet-finger tendon damage last year and still averaged more yards per pass play (6.6) than he did in Seattle’s 12-4 season in 2020 (6.5). Mallet finger is usually a 2-month injury so I think it’s safe to say Wilson came back way too early after 5 weeks. Taking out his first two games after returning to the lineup, Wilson averaged 7.0 yppp in 2021 which would’ve ranked 4th in the NFL. 

· Seattle’s offense finished the 2020 season 7th in scoring with a healthy Wilson under center and I think the Broncos will end up around that position.

· The market is currently implying Denver’s defense is one of the best in the NFL, but I believe they will take a step backwards after parting ways with head coach Vic Fangio.

· Fangio moved from college to the NFL in 2011 and has since architected eight top 10 defenses by scoring in 11 seasons. First-year defensive play caller Ejiro Evero is unlikely to match Fangio’s prowess.

· Seattle’s offense won’t be nearly as explosive with Geno Smith at the helm, but we only need them to reach 19 points to exceed market expectations at home on Monday night and Smith will benefit from two top-end WRs in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.

· The Seahawks lost six-time All-Pro linebacker Bobby Wagner this offseason which will hurt a rush defense that rated 2nd by our metrics in 2021. Wagner ranked 7th among LBs with 32 run stops last season.

· Our model favors the Broncos by 6.7 with a predicted total of 46.9.

The Over is a 1-Star Best Bet at 43.5 or less (Strong Opinion at 44).

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Broncos
  • Seahawks
DEN
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 38.00 39.00
  • Succ Pass Plays 52.6% 48.7%
  • Sack Rate 5.3% 5.1%
  • Int Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 19.4% 19.4%
  • Big Pass Yards 25.4% 37.1%
  • NYPP 6.71 6.51



Rush


  • Rush Plays 28.00 20.00
  • RB YPR 5.84 2.13
  • Stuff Rate 21.4% 20.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 39.3% 45.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 49.7% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 5.89 3.00




Game

  • All Snaps 66.00 59.00
  • Early Down Succ 45.7% 47.7%
  • Succ Rate 47.0% 47.5%
  • Big Yards Rate 34.7% 30.3%
  • Yards Per Play 6.36 5.32
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.5% 1.7%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 32.09 25.02
  • Run Ratio 42.4% 33.9%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control 0.00 0.00
 
  • Points 0.00 0.00
Share This