Game Analysis

PHILADELPHIA (-3.5) vs Denver

• Philadelphia’s offense had a 64% success rate and a +11.8% pass rate over expected in the first half last week, then they lost All-Pro RT Lane Johnson to another stinger and had a 20% success rate with zero completions in the second half versus the Buccaneers.
• It looks like Johnson plans to start in week 5 and he will be critical in limiting Denver edge defender Jonathon Cooper, who ranks 3rd in pass rushing efficiency.
• Opposite Cooper, Broncos edge rusher Nik Bonitto’s 31% pressure rate is the highest by any player 4 weeks into a season since Next Gen Stats started tracking pressures in 2018. However, Bonitto should be contained by All-Pro LT Jordan Mailata.
• Eagles’ wide receiver AJ Brown has a 32% success rate ranking 80th out of 81 players qualifying NFL receivers and his struggles could continue across from Defensive Player of the Year CB Patrick Surtain, who conceded one reception for 8 yards across 13 coverage matchups with Ja’Marr Chase last week.
• Jalen Hurts ranks 29th relatively against the blitz compared to a standard pass rush and he will see plenty of aggression on Sunday. Denver’s defense has a 40% blitz rate (6th-highest).
• Philadelphia’s defensive identity starts up front on the interior with All-Pro Jalen Carter and Moro Ojomo, who ranks 2nd in pass rushing efficiency. However, Bo Nix has the best guard tandem in the NFL in front of him. Ben Powers and Quinn Meinerz have both allowed pressure on just 2.4% of pass plays this season, tying for the fourth-best rate among all guards.
• Nix will need to use this protection to throw deeper than normal. Nix has a 75% short pass rate (3rd-highest) but the Eagles are conceding -0.20 EPA/short pass (3rd).
• Our model favors the Eagles by 2.9 points with a predicted total of 46.3 points.