Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Note: The Under in this game was released as a 1-Star Best Bet at Under 44.5 early in the week. The total has now moved out of range, although I’d still lean Under 42 or higher.

Lean – Under (42) – Denver (-2.5) vs OAKLAND

The Raiders are potentially playing their last game in the Coliseum on Monday night as the city of Oakland filed a lawsuit against the franchise and the stage is set for a low-scoring emotional divisional battle for the send-off.

Raiders Brandon Parker and Kolton Miller rank 4th-worst and dead last respectively in pass blocking efficiency among tackles and they couldn’t have a more difficult matchup on the edge. Von Miller is in the midst of a 7th Pro Bowl season with 14.5 sacks (2nd) and rookie Bradley Chubb has been superb as well with 12 sacks (8th). To make matters worse for Oakland’s offensive line, starting right guard Gabe Jackson was lost for the season to an elbow injury and starting left guard Kelechi Osemele could potentially miss his third game in a row. Backup Chaz Green surrendered 3 sacks last week and the other backup Denzelle Good conceded 5 pressures. I expect Denver’s defensive front to dominate in this matchup while putting Derek Carr under significant pressure.

Denver will be without excellent nickelback Chris Harris again, but Seth Roberts is gaining just 1.17 yards per route run in the slot this season (5th-worst) and I don’t think he’ll be able to take advantage of Harris’ absence. Oakland’s one offensive advantage is Jared Cook, who’s seen the most targets on the team and is gaining 1.93 yards per route run (5th). The Broncos defense is allowing 9.4 yards per target to opposing tight ends (31st) so Cook should have success if Carr has enough time in the pocket to find him. However, aside from Cook the Raiders’ offense will be extremely limited.

Case Keenum has thrown for just 4.4 yards per pass play since Emmanuel Sanders was lost for the season and Denver’s passing game appears lifeless after trading Demaryius Thomas earlier in the season. Courtland Sutton is probably the Broncos most talented remaining receiver, but he will likely be held in check by Gareon Conley, who has surrendered just 0.67 yards per cover snap since the bye (3rd) after being benched in week 5. Conley is in concussion protocol and his absence would hurt our chances of an under a bit – although there would still be value at the number we grabbed early in the week. I expect Denver to lean heavily on their 5th-rated ground game versus a Raiders rush defense ranked 26th, which will lead to a slower pace.

Our model favors the Broncos by 2.9 with a predicted total of 41.5 points with the damp conditions and wind factored in, and this game applies to a 711-513-16 Under situation that has been very reliable over the years. I’ll play Under in a 1-Star Best Bet at 44 points or higher and as a Strong Opinion Under 43.5 or 43 points.

After Sunday’s 3-2 on Best Bets and 1-0 on the only Strong Opinion, the 2018 NFL Best Bets are now 37-26 (after starting 0-2 in week 1) while the Strong Opinions are 24-13 for the season.

The results since 2016, when I started using play-by-play data and advanced metrics, has been good on both Best Bets and Opinions.

2016-18 NFL Best Bets are 174-127-2 (57.8%)

2016-18 NFL Strong Opinions are 116-84-4 (58.0%)

NFL Football Season

2016-23 NFL Best Bets are 418-298-8 (58.4%) – 50-27-2 in 2023

2016-23 NFL Strong Opinions are 303-249-13 (54.9%) – 40-37-2 in 2023

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Team Stats
Game Log

Broncos
Raiders

DEN

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 36.9 37.8
Succ Pass Plays 46.6% 49.1%
Sack Rate 6.3% 8.3%
Int Rate 2.4% 3.4%
Deep Pass Rate 16.3% 17.8%
Big Pass Yards 42.9% 46.7%
NYPP 6.3 7.4

Rush

Rush Plays 25.2 27.4
RB YPR 4.8 4.3
Stuff Rate 24.7% 19.0%
Succ Rush Plays 48.0% 43.2%
Big Rush Yards 50.7% 37.1%
Yards Per Rush 4.8 4.2

Game

All Snaps 62.1 65.1
Early Down Succ 50.7% 48.7%
Succ Rate 47.6% 46.2%
Big Yards Rate 45.8% 45.7%
Yards Per Play 5.7 5.9
Fumble Lost Rate 0.3% 1.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 27.7 29.0
Run Ratio 40.7% 42.6%
Starting Field Pos 27.3 27.6
Game Control -1.0 1.0

Points 21.9 21.4

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	SEA	27 – 24 W	1.9	57.5% / 35.9%	2.5% / 15.4%	7.7% / 6.1%	8.1 / 6.2	50.0% / 18.8%	21.9% / 25.0%	4.6 / 4.0	72 / 55	58.3% / 34.9%	54.2% / 30.9%	53.2% / 63.7%	6.5 / 5.6	0.0% / 1.8%	44.4% / 29.1%	26.6 / 27.4
2	OAK	20 – 19 W	-6.1	36.1% / 72.7%	2.8% / 3.0%	2.9% / 0.0%	6.0 / 8.5	57.1% / 44.4%	17.9% / 18.5%	6.0 / 3.4	64 / 60	42.6% / 67.3%	45.3% / 60.0%	57.7% / 41.3%	6.0 / 6.2	0.0% / 0.0%	43.8% / 45.0%	25.7 / 23.9
3	@BAL	14 – 27 L	-4.7	45.9% / 48.8%	8.1% / 4.9%	2.9% / 0.0%	4.7 / 6.5	45.8% / 32.3%	33.3% / 19.4%	5.0 / 2.6	61 / 72	47.8% / 43.1%	45.9% / 41.7%	39.9% / 33.9%	4.8 / 4.8	0.0% / 0.0%	39.3% / 43.1%	33.4 / 27.2
4	KC	23 – 27 L	1.9	32.4% / 50.0%	10.8% / 2.2%	3.0% / 0.0%	6.1 / 6.6	72.7% / 66.7%	18.2% / 14.8%	7.2 / 5.3	59 / 73	53.3% / 59.3%	47.5% / 56.2%	59.7% / 48.8%	6.5 / 6.1	0.0% / 0.0%	37.3% / 37.0%	24.2 / 30.6
5	@NYJ	16 – 34 L	-7.7	71.8% / 72.7%	10.3% / 9.1%	2.9% / 10.0%	8.8 / 17.2	47.1% / 46.2%	47.1% / 17.9%	5.4 / 8.3	56 / 50	56.1% / 42.6%	64.3% / 52.0%	42.2% / 74.5%	7.8 / 10.3	0.0% / 2.0%	30.4% / 78.0%	26.2 / 28.8
6	LA	20 – 23 L	-8.2	48.8% / 30.3%	4.7% / 15.2%	2.4% / 3.6%	6.9 / 5.3	33.3% / 68.3%	16.7% / 2.4%	3.4 / 6.6	61 / 74	50.0% / 55.8%	44.3% / 51.4%	48.0% / 53.8%	5.9 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	29.5% / 55.4%	27.0 / 28.5
7	@ARI	45 – 10 W	24.9	45.8% / 40.0%	8.3% / 13.3%	4.5% / 7.7%	7.4 / 3.4	32.4% / 33.3%	23.5% / 28.6%	3.9 / 3.3	58 / 66	42.5% / 41.2%	37.9% / 37.9%	52.6% / 32.3%	5.4 / 3.4	0.0% / 3.0%	58.6% / 31.8%	37.0 / 23.5
8	@KC	23 – 30 L	-4.5	41.0% / 50.0%	12.8% / 5.6%	2.9% / 2.9%	5.7 / 8.1	66.7% / 33.3%	13.3% / 16.7%	6.3 / 2.7	69 / 54	55.4% / 46.5%	52.2% / 44.4%	57.7% / 42.4%	6.0 / 6.3	1.4% / 0.0%	43.5% / 33.3%	23.3 / 38.0
9	HOU	17 – 19 L	-3.8	47.7% / 53.6%	4.5% / 14.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.2 / 6.9	35.0% / 39.4%	40.0% / 30.3%	3.8 / 3.0	64 / 61	43.8% / 51.1%	43.8% / 45.9%	38.5% / 10.7%	5.4 / 4.8	1.6% / 0.0%	31.3% / 54.1%	22.5 / 31.4
11	@LAC	23 – 22 W	-3.5	46.9% / 47.8%	0.0% / 6.5%	0.0% / 4.7%	6.8 / 8.3	57.9% / 38.5%	15.8% / 23.1%	5.7 / 3.7	51 / 72	56.4% / 40.4%	51.0% / 44.4%	45.5% / 52.8%	6.4 / 6.7	0.0% / 0.0%	37.3% / 36.1%	32.7 / 19.7
12	PIT	24 – 17 W	1.7	46.7% / 51.7%	6.7% / 3.3%	0.0% / 3.4%	6.1 / 7.5	34.6% / 56.3%	15.4% / 6.3%	4.9 / 4.7	56 / 76	50.0% / 54.1%	41.1% / 52.6%	46.0% / 36.1%	5.6 / 6.9	0.0% / 2.6%	46.4% / 21.1%	25.8 / 25.1
13	@CIN	24 – 10 W	6.2	43.5% / 38.1%	8.7% / 9.5%	0.0% / 2.6%	6.2 / 4.8	60.0% / 43.5%	17.1% / 34.8%	6.3 / 4.8	58 / 65	60.5% / 42.0%	53.4% / 40.0%	61.0% / 57.6%	6.2 / 4.8	1.7% / 3.1%	60.3% / 35.4%	32.7 / 22.7
14	@SF	14 – 20 L	-10.6	38.6% / 47.2%	4.5% / 8.3%	0.0% / 3.0%	3.9 / 8.5	39.3% / 36.1%	25.0% / 11.1%	3.7 / 2.4	72 / 72	43.8% / 52.0%	38.9% / 41.7%	25.8% / 53.4%	3.8 / 5.5	0.0% / 0.0%	38.9% / 50.0%	25.4 / 24.3
15	CLE	16 – 17 L	-1.2	49.0% / 48.5%	4.1% / 6.1%	4.3% / 3.2%	4.9 / 5.3	40.0% / 48.3%	40.0% / 17.2%	1.7 / 4.7	69 / 62	50.0% / 52.2%	46.4% / 48.4%	12.9% / 38.1%	3.9 / 5.0	0.0% / 1.6%	29.0% / 46.8%	20.2 / 34.8

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	LA	13 – 33 L	-1.4	48.8% / 44.1%	2.4% / 2.9%	7.5% / 0.0%	7.3 / 6.6	56.5% / 55.6%	17.4% / 3.7%	4.1 / 5.2	64 / 61	52.8% / 54.2%	51.6% / 49.2%	39.2% / 39.3%	6.2 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	35.9% / 44.3%	23.5 / 27.0
2	@DEN	19 – 20 L	6.1	72.7% / 36.1%	3.0% / 2.8%	0.0% / 2.9%	8.5 / 6.0	44.4% / 57.1%	18.5% / 17.9%	3.4 / 6.0	60 / 64	67.3% / 42.6%	60.0% / 45.3%	41.3% / 57.7%	6.2 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	45.0% / 43.8%	23.9 / 25.7
3	@MIA	20 – 28 L	2.8	57.1% / 48.0%	7.1% / 4.0%	5.1% / 0.0%	7.7 / 13.3	55.9% / 20.0%	14.7% / 33.3%	3.3 / 2.8	76 / 40	62.1% / 43.3%	56.6% / 37.5%	32.6% / 62.8%	5.7 / 9.4	0.0% / 0.0%	44.7% / 37.5%	19.7 / 30.6
4	CLE	45 – 42 W	-2.1	53.3% / 37.2%	5.0% / 4.7%	3.5% / 4.9%	7.1 / 6.5	33.3% / 43.8%	36.7% / 21.9%	4.7 / 6.5	90 / 75	52.1% / 42.1%	46.7% / 40.0%	44.2% / 57.8%	6.3 / 6.5	0.0% / 2.7%	33.3% / 42.7%	34.9 / 26.1
5	@LAC	10 – 26 L	-9.9	68.0% / 78.3%	12.0% / 4.3%	4.5% / 0.0%	9.9 / 14.5	61.5% / 27.3%	23.1% / 30.3%	3.2 / 2.5	38 / 56	55.6% / 45.5%	65.8% / 48.2%	59.5% / 43.4%	7.6 / 7.4	2.6% / 0.0%	34.2% / 58.9%	21.2 / 35.3
6	SEA	3 – 27 L	-15.9	37.8% / 50.0%	16.2% / 4.2%	0.0% / 4.3%	2.9 / 8.9	52.6% / 46.2%	15.8% / 15.4%	4.2 / 4.0	56 / 63	46.5% / 45.7%	42.9% / 47.6%	31.9% / 46.9%	3.3 / 5.9	3.6% / 0.0%	33.9% / 61.9%	20.5 / 42.2
8	IND	28 – 42 L	-1.5	57.1% / 61.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.7 / 7.7	55.0% / 66.7%	15.0% / 11.9%	5.2 / 5.3	48 / 73	61.1% / 66.7%	56.3% / 64.4%	47.4% / 36.3%	7.3 / 6.3	2.1% / 0.0%	41.7% / 57.5%	26.1 / 35.6
9	@SF	3 – 34 L	-16.4	31.3% / 59.1%	25.0% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.4 / 11.9	37.5% / 28.6%	20.8% / 31.4%	4.3 / 4.2	56 / 57	39.0% / 45.0%	33.9% / 40.4%	44.4% / 74.0%	4.3 / 7.2	0.0% / 0.0%	42.9% / 61.4%	23.6 / 28.9
10	LAC	6 – 20 L	-5.9	39.0% / 48.1%	9.8% / 3.7%	0.0% / 3.8%	5.0 / 8.2	43.5% / 57.7%	21.7% / 19.2%	5.0 / 4.3	64 / 53	45.5% / 59.5%	40.6% / 52.8%	45.3% / 47.5%	5.0 / 6.3	1.6% / 0.0%	35.9% / 49.1%	23.1 / 21.6
11	@ARI	23 – 21 W	1.4	48.5% / 33.3%	12.1% / 4.8%	0.0% / 10.0%	5.2 / 6.1	60.6% / 41.9%	15.2% / 32.3%	4.6 / 5.0	66 / 52	60.8% / 42.5%	54.5% / 38.5%	47.4% / 43.3%	4.9 / 5.4	0.0% / 0.0%	50.0% / 59.6%	29.9 / 29.6
12	@BAL	17 – 34 L	-3.9	29.7% / 42.3%	8.1% / 3.8%	0.0% / 8.0%	4.9 / 6.7	47.6% / 68.9%	19.0% / 11.1%	3.3 / 5.4	58 / 71	42.5% / 63.0%	36.2% / 59.2%	44.2% / 60.8%	4.3 / 5.9	1.7% / 0.0%	36.2% / 63.4%	25.5 / 24.8
13	KC	33 – 40 L	-10.1	48.8% / 55.3%	7.3% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.6 / 7.8	67.9% / 48.5%	17.9% / 15.2%	6.1 / 5.4	69 / 71	52.6% / 57.7%	56.5% / 52.1%	49.8% / 52.5%	6.4 / 6.6	4.3% / 1.4%	40.6% / 46.5%	31.7 / 29.9
14	PIT	24 – 21 W	0.3	57.9% / 59.0%	10.5% / 2.6%	0.0% / 2.6%	7.9 / 7.7	34.6% / 31.6%	34.6% / 26.3%	2.2 / 2.1	64 / 58	52.1% / 50.0%	48.4% / 50.0%	33.8% / 22.1%	5.5 / 5.9	1.6% / 0.0%	40.6% / 32.8%	28.2 / 29.5
15	@CIN	16 – 30 L	-8.9	41.5% / 26.5%	12.2% / 2.9%	0.0% / 3.0%	5.6 / 3.6	43.8% / 34.1%	31.3% / 27.3%	4.3 / 4.0	57 / 78	47.7% / 25.5%	42.1% / 30.8%	54.2% / 57.6%	5.2 / 3.8	3.5% / 0.0%	28.1% / 56.4%	28.8 / 37.8

Denver Broncos @

Oakland Raiders

Mon, Dec 24

5:15 PM Pacific

Game Analysis

NFL Football Season