Game Analysis

NY JETS (-7.5) vs Denver

• Not a major surprise but Aaron Rodgers is so much more comfortable under center than Zach Wilson, which has transformed the New York’s offense. The Jets have a 57% conversion rate on 3rd down this season compared to a league-low 26% last year.
• Rodgers’ Achilles looks mostly healed as he was 5-for-5 for 62 yards last week when throwing on the run.
• Denver’s defense is allowing just a 33% rush success rate (6th) so New York’s offense will rely on Rodgers in this game.
• The Broncos lead the NFL with a 54.3% blitz rate and a 44.7% pressure rate, but that will not affect Rodgers as much as most other quarterbacks. Rodgers is averaging 0.35 EPA/dropback to first read (5th) and he does not have a turnover-worthy throw this season.
• Denver CB Pat Surtain conceded just 8 yards shadowing Buccaneers WR Mike Evans last week and Surtain will contain Jets WR Garrett Wilson. Rodgers will have to continue making his first read WR Allen Lazard, who is averaging 0.87 EPA/target (7th).
• New York LG John Simpson ranks 9th in pass blocking efficiency and C Joe Tippmann ranks 7th in pass blocking efficiency. The pair will limit Zach Allen, who leads interior defenders with 18 pressures.
• Jets’ starting right tackle Morgan Moses is out, which leaves rookie backup Olumuyiwa Fashanu lining up across from edge defender Jonathon Cooper, who ranks 15th in pass rushing efficiency.
• The Broncos are also starting a backup at right tackle and Alex Palczewski will struggle versus edge defender Will McDonald, who has stepped up in absence of Haason Reddick and Jermaine Johnson by ranking 9th in pass rushing efficiency.
• Bo Nix’s two target leaders are outside wide receivers Courtland Sutton and Josh Reynolds, who is averaging 0.89 EPA/target (6th). However, New York’s outside cornerbacks are one of the best tandems in the NFL. DJ Reed is conceding 0.44 yards per cover snap (7th) and Sauce Gardner had a 64% separation prevented rate last week (10th).
• Our model favors the Jets by 7.6 points with a predicted total of 40.9.