Denver Broncos @

New York Giants

Sun, Sep 12
1:25 PM Pacific
Rotation: 475
Odds: New York Giants +3, Total: 42

Game Analysis

Create an account to get analysis and updates sent to your inbox.

Lean – NY GIANTS (+3) vs Denver

This game rightly has the lowest total of week 1 with two offenses that might finish in the bottom 10 of the NFL facing two of the league’s best defensive play callers in Vic Fangio and Patrick Graham.

Denver’s defense will start the season 2nd in our model. Edge rusher Bradley Chubb finished 12th in pass rushing efficiency last year and he should improve with Von Miller (back after missing the entirety of 2020) drawing attention on the other side. The Broncos add former Bears All-Pro CB Kyle Fuller, who conceded only 0.72 yards per cover snap last season. Denver’s defense also retains Pro Bowl safety Justin Simmons and Bryce Callahan, one of only four qualifying cornerbacks in the NFL to not allow a touchdown all of last season. The Broncos defense has similar talent to the 2018 Bears that Fangio conducted to conceding only 17.6 points per game (best in the NFL).

New York’s secondary is probably one of the league’s most underrated. Adoree’ Jackson fought through injuries last season (only 154 snaps) but the Titans were a half yard per pass play better in the 11 games Jackson played in 2019 compared to the five games he missed (not including week 17 versus Houston’s backups). Jabrill Peppers and Logan Ryan form one of the most versatile safety tandems in the NFL as their 19 combined pressures ranked 3rd. James Bradberry conceded just one reception every 13.8 cover snaps in 2020 (12th).

Teddy Bridgewater likely takes a step backwards with a significant drop in offensive coordinator from Joe Brady to Pat Shurmur. Bridgewater averaged less than 6 yppp before playing under Sean Payton (in New Orleans) and Brady (in Carolina) the past three seasons.

Saquon Barkley returns after missing most of 2020 but the most impactful upgrade to New York’s offense will likely be WR Kenny Golladay, who led the league with 16 receptions with 20+ air yards in 2019 before dealing with a hip-flexor injury last year. However, my confidence is low for the combination of offensive coordinator Jason Garrett and quarterback Daniel Jones. The Giants have around a 50/50 chance to finish the year as one of the worst five offenses in the NFL again.

Our model favors the Broncos by 1.4 points, with a predicted total of 42.0 points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Broncos
  • Giants


  • Pass Plays 0.0 0.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 0.0% 0.0%
  • Sack Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Int Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Pass Yards 0.0% 0.0%
  • NYPP 0.0 0.0


  • Rush Plays 0.0 0.0
  • RB YPR 0.0 0.0
  • Stuff Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 0.0% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 0.0 0.0


  • All Snaps 0.0 0.0
  • Early Down Succ 0.0% 0.0%
  • Succ Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Play 0.0 0.0
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 0.0 0.0
  • Run Ratio 0.0% 0.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.0 0.0
  • Game Control 0.0 0.0
  • Points 0.0 0.0
Share This