Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – Denver (-2.5) over NEW ORLEANS

• The story heading into Thursday night’s game is that the Saints are missing more than half the starters on offense from the week 1 depth chart, which is worth a total of 6.5 points according to our metrics.
• New Orleans’ backup quarterback Spencer Rattler had the Saints leading at halftime last week but ultimately averaged only 4.9 yppp and the game was only close in the second quarter due to a Buccaneers dropped pass which led to an interception setting up a short field, adding 17 percentage points of win probability for New Orleans. Also, Saints WR Rashid Shaheed had a punt return touchdown, which further disguises the drop off in the Saints’ offense.
• Shaheed and New Orleans WR Chris Olave will both be sidelined this week, and the two starting wide receivers are averaging 1.38 yards per route run more than the other Saints wide receivers. They won’t be able to capitalize on the Broncos’ loss of CB Pat Surtain, who is allowing only 0.59 yards per cover snap (8th).
• New Orleans’s offensive line ranks 28th in pass-blocking efficiency since losing C Erik McCoy and they will struggle as Denver’s defense has a 40% pressure rate (3rd-highest).
• The Broncos have a 49% blitz rate (2nd-highest) and the Saints offensive line with three backups has struggled to pick up extra pass rushers. New Orleans’ yards per attempt against the blitz is 79% of its yards per attempt versus a standard pass rush (28th).
• The Saints use 2 WR sets at the 4th-highest rate in the NFL, but Denver’s defense thrives against heavy personnel – allowing a yppp 86% of the yppp with 3+ wide receivers on the field (5th).
• The Broncos’ defense is allowing only a 37% rush success rate (9th) and they will force Rattler to beat them as a passer with his best remaining receiving options likely to be contained.  Alvin Kamara leads RBs averaging 0.27 EPA/target but Denver’s defense is conceding a 40% receiving success rate to opposing running backs (8th).
• The Broncos could have two starters out on the offensive line (RT Mike McGlinchey may return after being out since week 2) but Bo Nix shouldn’t have to do much in this game. Instead, Denver’s offense will lean on the ground game as New Orleans is surrendering 0.03 EPA/rush (28th) and has another short week after being on the field for 152 snaps since last Monday.
• Our model favors Denver by 4.3 points, with a predicted total of 38.2 points, and the matchups significantly favor the Broncos in this game.

Denver is a Strong Opinion at -2.5 -115 odds or better.