Game Analysis

LA CHARGERS (-2.5) vs Denver

· Sean Payton hasn’t necessarily fixed Russell Wilson, who is averaging 5.8 yppp compared to 5.9 yppp last season. However, Payton has transformed Denver’s ground game.

· The Broncos have the 7th-highest run rate adjusted for the situation and a 41.0% rush success rate (10th). I believe Payton will lean on the run in this game against a Chargers rush defense that ranks 30th according to our numbers.

· Denver’s quick passing attack to WR Jerry Jeudy will be limited on the inside as Los Angeles made a switch at nickelback. Essang Bassey is conceding 0.48 fewer yards per cover snap in the slot than Ja’Sir Taylor. I think Wilson is more likely to look downfield to WR Courtland Sutton, who has 10 receptions on passes with at least 20 air yards (5th).

· Broncos LT Garett Bolles has conceded a quarterback knockdown on just 0.9% of dropbacks (2nd) and he will line up across from edge rusher Khalil Mack, whose 60 pressures rank 7th.

· Justin Herbert will not be kept as clean as Wilson. Chargers RT Trey Pipkins has surrendered 38 pressures (7th-most) and he will line up across from edge defender Nik Bonitto, who ranks 6th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Herbert will get the ball out fast to wide receiver Keenan Allen, who was mostly doubled last week, but he has a 61% success rate (4th) and a favorable matchup in this game. Denver nickelback Ja’Quan McMillian is being targeted every 5.5 cover snaps in the slot (8th-most) and he will struggle on the inside versus Allen.

· Our model favors the Chargers by 0.9 points, with a predicted total of 45.5 points.