Denver Broncos @

Los Angeles Chargers

Sun, Oct 6
1:05 PM Pacific
Rotation: 471
Odds: Los Angeles Chargers -6, Total: 44.5

Game Analysis

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LA CHARGERS (-6.5) vs Denver

Broncos offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello is not playing to Joe Flacco’s strengths as the veteran quarterback is throwing the ball 20+ yards downfield on only 7.4% of his passes (2nd-lowest). Emmanuel Sanders and Courtland Sutton are both averaging more than 2 yards per route run and Scangarello would be wise to utilize his deep passing game versus a Chargers defense without safeties Derwin James and Adrian Phillips. Melvin Ingram is also going to miss this game after ranking 12th in pass rushing efficiency through the first quarter of the season. Right tackle Ja-Wuan James may return this week just in time to face Joey Bosa. Denver’s ground game ranks 30th and is unlikely to find any room against a Chargers rush defense that is rated 3rd, so it’ll be up to Flacco and Scangarello to air-it-out on Sunday – although there is no guarantee that they will.

Philip Rivers’ two favorite targets have great matchups. Keenan Allen is gaining a league-high 2.95 yards per route run with about half of his snaps coming from the slot and it looks like the Broncos will still be missing star nickelback Bryce Callahan due to a foot injury. Austin Ekeler is averaging 2.73 yards per route run, highest among running backs, and he should dominate versus a Broncos defense allowing 7.4 yards per target to opposing running backs (26th). The Chargers will get Melvin Gordon back but I do not believe it will make much of a difference for their offense. Bradley Chubb is out for Denver but Chargers right tackle Sam Tevi has conceded 4 sacks this season (2nd-most) and has no shot of staying in front of Von Miller, who could finally have a breakout game after a slow start to the season.

I’m hoping to see the Broncos take the reins off Joe Flacco this week while Los Angeles should move the ball easily through Allen and Ekeler. Our model favors the Chargers by 8.0 points, with a predicted total of 45.6, but I won’t lean with the Chargers because of a 34-94-1 ATS contrary angle that they apply to.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Broncos
  • Chargers
DEN
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 39.8 30.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 49.6% 45.2%
  • Sack Rate 7.5% 3.3%
  • Int Rate 2.0% 0.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 12.3% 19.4%
  • Big Pass Yards 48.8% 36.8%
  • NYPP 6.3 6.9



Rush


  • Rush Plays 25.3 29.5
  • RB YPR 4.1 4.8
  • Stuff Rate 19.2% 15.7%
  • Succ Rush Plays 51.6% 49.2%
  • Big Rush Yards 30.4% 42.5%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.0 4.8




Game

  • All Snaps 65.0 59.5
  • Early Down Succ 53.7% 48.7%
  • Succ Rate 51.1% 47.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 42.4% 43.3%
  • Yards Per Play 5.5 5.9
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.7% 0.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 26.7 31.2
  • Run Ratio 38.4% 49.5%
  • Starting Field Pos 24.8 27.4
  • Game Control -3.6 3.6
 
  • Points 17.5 23.3
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