Denver Broncos @

Las Vegas Raiders

Sun, Oct 2
1:25 PM Pacific
Rotation: 273
Odds: Las Vegas Raiders -2.5, Total: 45.5

Game Analysis

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LAS VEGAS (-2.5) vs Denver

· The Raiders are the league’s only 0-3 team but also one of the best 0-3 teams I can remember. They are neutral in yards per play and every game has come down to the wire against a better than average set of opponents (healthy Chargers, Cardinals, Titans). Las Vegas leads the NFL with 45% of drives reaching the red zone and I expect the execution inside the 20 to improve.

· It’s worth noting the market isn’t treating the Raiders as an 0-3 team. In fact, oddsmakers likely have Las Vegas rated above the Broncos here because home field is worth less than a point in divisional games.

· Derek Carr has a league-low 29% catchable deep pass rate. Inaccuracy is usually not an issue for Carr and he should get better starting this week.

· Denver’s defense has a 42% blitz rate (2nd-highest) and Carr gained 8.9 ypa versus the blitz last season (4th).

· New head coach Josh McDaniels is tinkering with the protection and nine different linemen have played at least a snap for the Raiders already in three games.

· Las Vegas WR Davante Adams is averaging 2.24 yards per route run in the slot (8th) and he will battle on the inside against nickelback K’Waun Williams, who is conceding only 0.64 yards per slot cover snap (4th). It won’t get easier for Adams on the outside across from Broncos CB Patrick Surtain, who has allowed all of 45 yards on 14 targets this season. Surtain did not allow a reception on 6 targets last Sunday night, tied for the most targets without a reception allowed in a game since the start of last year.

· Broncos’ wide receiver Courtland Sutton hauled in eight of his 10 targets for 97 yards last Sunday night and was one of the few bright spots in Denver’s offense. Sutton could be matched up with Raiders CB Nate Hobbs, who is allowing just 5.2 yards per target. However, the status of Hobbs (concussion protocol) and fellow CB Rock Ya-Sin (knee strain) are both up in the air on Sunday.

· Russell Wilson has connected with running back Javonte Williams for 15 receptions, which ranks third among RBs. Las Vegas is surrendering 7.4 yards per target to opposing running backs (29th).

· Our model has the Raiders by 1.0 with a predicted total of 46.4. I’d lean with Denver if the line gets to +3.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Broncos
  • Raiders


  • Pass Plays 0.00 0.00
  • Succ Pass Plays 0.0% 0.0%
  • Sack Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Int Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Pass Yards 0.0% 0.0%
  • NYPP 0.00 0.00


  • Rush Plays 0.00 0.00
  • RB YPR 0.00 0.00
  • Stuff Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 0.0% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 0.00 0.00


  • All Snaps 0.00 0.00
  • Early Down Succ 0.0% 0.0%
  • Succ Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Play 0.00 0.00
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 0.00 0.00
  • Run Ratio 0.0% 0.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control 0.00 0.00
  • Points 0.00 0.00
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