Denver Broncos @

Kansas City Chiefs

Thu, Oct 12
5:15 PM Pacific
Rotation: 111
Odds: Kansas City Chiefs -10.5, Total: 47

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – Kansas City Team Total Under (29.5)

Lean – Denver (+10.5) over KANSAS CITY

· Winds gusts of 30mph will keep Kansas City’s offense from running away with this game on Thursday night.

· The Chiefs wide receivers just aren’t getting open this season, which has bogged down the offense. Patrick Mahomes is averaging just 6.3 yppp when kept clean (6th-lowest). It seems like the only way Kansas City’s offense can reliably move the ball is when the play breaks down and Mahomes makes magic happen. This is no longer the league’s best offense.

· Travis Kelce is gaining 0.40 EPA/target (6th) but he has had just 3 days to rest his low ankle sprain and likely will be on a snap count in this game.

· The Broncos are surrendering a league-high 7.0 yppl but they got back LB Josey Jewell and S Justin Simmons last week and they are no longer the worst defense in the NFL according to our numbers.

· Denver’s offense should have answers despite the weather as Russell Wilson has thrown 21 screens (6th-most) and RB Samaje Perine is averaging 1.87 yards per route run (3rd).

· The Broncos should be able to move the ball on the ground versus a Chiefs defense ranking 29th in EPA/rush.

· Kansas City nickelback Trent McDuffie is conceding just 0.88 yards per cover snap in the slot (6th) and he will shut down WR Jerry Jeudy, who is gaining 1.52 yards per route run from the slot (9th).

· Denver right tackle Mike McGlinchey is struggling outside of Kyle Shanahan’s system. McGlinchey is on pace to surrender 13 sacks after his high with the 49ers in a season was just 6 sacks allowed. McGlinchey could surrender another sack in this game across from edge defender George Karlaftis ranks, who ranks 15th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· Chiefs DT Chris Jones leads all interior defenders with 4.5 sacks, but he will be limited this week as Broncos RG Quinn Meinerz ranks 7th in pass blocking efficiency and C Lloyd Cushenberry ranks 3rd in pass blocking efficiency.

· Our model makes Kansas City an 8.0-point favorite with a predicted total of 46.2.

The Kansas City Team Total Under 28.5 or more is a Strong Opinion.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Broncos
  • Chiefs
DEN
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 0.00 0.00
  • Succ Pass Plays 0.0% 0.0%
  • Sack Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Int Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Pass Yards 0.0% 0.0%
  • NYPP 0.00 0.00



Rush


  • Rush Plays 0.00 0.00
  • RB YPR 0.00 0.00
  • Stuff Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 0.0% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 0.00 0.00




Game

  • All Snaps 0.00 0.00
  • Early Down Succ 0.0% 0.0%
  • Succ Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Play 0.00 0.00
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 0.00 0.00
  • Run Ratio 0.0% 0.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control 0.00 0.00
 
  • Points 0.00 0.00
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