Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – KANSAS CITY (-10) over Denver

Patrick Mahomes averaged 8.1 yards per pass play in 2018 and he’s close to that impressive number this season with 7.8 yards per pass play despite injuries in his receiving corps earlier in the season. Mahomes’ yards per pass play is higher than any other quarterback in the last 3 years (min 300 attempts) but his top two receiving weapons face difficult matchups in this game. Tyreek Hill is gaining nearly 10 yards per target in his career but just 6.7 yards per target against Denver’s secondary and Pro Bowl cornerback Chris Harris. Hill was not shadowed by Harris in week 7 but I think there’s a decent chance we see shadow coverage on Sunday. Harris has held Allen Robinson, Davante Adams, TY Hilton, Odell Beckham, Stefon Diggs, John Brown, Keenan Allen, and DeAndre Hopkins to an average of just 36 receiving yards per game in shadow coverage this season. Travis Kelce’s 989 yards lead all tight ends but he will likely struggle against a Broncos defense allowing only 6.6 yards per target to opposing tight ends (4th). Kelce had his lowest receiving total of the year against Denver in week 7. Von Miller ranks 5th in pass rushing efficiency but the Pro Bowl edge defender will be neutralized by right tackle Mitchell Schwartz, who has conceded just 14 pressures (3rd-fewest). So, Mahomes may have some time to allow his well-covered receivers to get open but I still think he’ll struggle relative to his normal level of play.

The Broncos have been conservative with their rookie quarterback as Drew Lock has a 7.0-yard average depth of target the last two weeks (5th-lowest). I expect the short throws to continue and the Broncos’ running backs should have success catching passes out of the backfield against Chiefs linebacker Damien Wilson, who is surrendering 1.58 yards per cover snap (2nd-worst). Noah Fant is gaining 2.84 yards per route run in the second half of the season but the rookie tight end is questionable with a foot contusion and hip irritation. Courtland Sutton is averaging 2.16 yards per route run (12th) but he will be limited by Bashaud Breeland, who has yielded only 0.89 yards allowed per cover snap (14th). Denver’s interior offensive line is conceding only 3.3 pressures per game and should contain Chris Jones, who has a 19% pass rush win rate (3rd). The Broncos have 30 more outside rushes to the right than the left this season and the gap will likely widen with starting right tackle Ja’Wuan James back in uniform. Edge defender Alex Okafor has only 4 run stops all year and I expect Denver to run behind James to exploit Kansas City’s 27th-rated rush defense.

Our model favors the Chiefs by 10.9 points, with a predicted total of 45.3 points, and I’ll lean with Kansas City on the basis of a 27-85-4 ATS road letdown situation that applies to Denver based on last week’s upset win.

Team Stats
Game Log

Broncos
Chiefs

DEN

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 33.8 35.7
Succ Pass Plays 39.7% 44.5%
Sack Rate 8.5% 6.4%
Int Rate 2.3% 1.9%
Deep Pass Rate 16.6% 14.5%
Big Pass Yards 52.6% 37.4%
NYPP 5.9 6.3

Rush

Rush Plays 25.7 27.5
RB YPR 4.2 3.8
Stuff Rate 18.2% 23.4%
Succ Rush Plays 47.8% 46.8%
Big Rush Yards 34.8% 32.3%
Yards Per Rush 4.2 3.9

Game

All Snaps 59.5 63.2
Early Down Succ 46.4% 48.2%
Succ Rate 43.1% 45.5%
Big Yards Rate 46.4% 38.6%
Yards Per Play 5.2 5.2
Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 0.7%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.8 29.3
Run Ratio 43.4% 43.6%
Starting Field Pos 27.1 29.5
Game Control 2.4 -2.4

Points 18.2 20.1

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@OAK	16 – 24 L	-9.5	50.0% / 65.4%	8.8% / 0.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.3 / 10.0	52.2% / 46.4%	26.1% / 14.3%	4.1 / 3.5	57 / 54	52.3% / 51.3%	50.9% / 55.6%	58.1% / 40.3%	6.0 / 6.6	0.0% / 0.0%	40.4% / 51.9%	21.8 / 29.0
2	CHI	14 – 16 L	-2.6	50.0% / 40.7%	3.8% / 0.0%	2.0% / 0.0%	5.4 / 4.4	50.0% / 48.3%	25.0% / 20.7%	3.8 / 5.3	76 / 56	55.2% / 47.7%	50.0% / 44.6%	19.1% / 35.5%	4.9 / 4.9	0.0% / 0.0%	31.6% / 51.8%	24.6 / 20.5
3	@GB	16 – 27 L	-7.3	45.7% / 37.9%	17.1% / 0.0%	3.4% / 0.0%	4.6 / 8.1	60.5% / 52.2%	13.2% / 17.4%	3.9 / 3.3	73 / 52	52.7% / 50.0%	53.4% / 44.2%	40.0% / 45.2%	4.2 / 6.0	2.7% / 0.0%	52.1% / 44.2%	26.0 / 36.3
4	JAC	24 – 26 L	5.0	52.6% / 36.8%	0.0% / 13.2%	2.6% / 0.0%	8.0 / 4.9	43.8% / 50.0%	12.5% / 10.5%	4.3 / 7.1	54 / 76	54.8% / 45.9%	50.0% / 43.4%	52.3% / 52.1%	6.9 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	29.6% / 50.0%	27.0 / 24.0
5	@LAC	20 – 13 W	12.5	34.8% / 41.7%	13.0% / 0.0%	5.0% / 4.2%	6.9 / 4.4	50.0% / 31.3%	15.6% / 43.8%	6.0 / 2.2	55 / 64	48.8% / 42.9%	43.6% / 39.1%	60.6% / 8.1%	6.4 / 3.8	1.8% / 1.6%	58.2% / 25.0%	28.9 / 31.3
6	TEN	16 – 0 W	7.4	41.4% / 29.3%	3.4% / 17.1%	3.6% / 8.8%	5.8 / 4.0	30.0% / 33.3%	16.7% / 33.3%	3.4 / 1.9	59 / 62	44.2% / 37.8%	35.6% / 30.6%	26.3% / 12.3%	4.6 / 3.3	0.0% / 0.0%	50.8% / 33.9%	23.4 / 30.6
7	KC	6 – 30 L	-11.6	25.6% / 51.6%	20.9% / 3.2%	0.0% / 0.0%	3.1 / 6.2	42.9% / 33.3%	14.3% / 25.9%	3.4 / 3.0	64 / 58	37.5% / 46.3%	31.3% / 43.1%	37.6% / 43.9%	3.2 / 4.7	1.6% / 0.0%	32.8% / 46.6%	23.4 / 36.8
8	@IND	13 – 15 L	2.8	28.6% / 44.8%	8.6% / 13.8%	0.0% / 0.0%	4.7 / 6.6	50.0% / 58.1%	21.4% / 29.0%	4.0 / 4.1	63 / 60	43.1% / 57.4%	38.1% / 51.7%	39.4% / 32.7%	4.4 / 5.3	0.0% / 1.7%	44.4% / 51.7%	28.9 / 21.9
9	CLE	24 – 19 W	6.2	39.1% / 45.5%	13.0% / 4.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.6 / 5.9	45.0% / 37.9%	15.0% / 20.7%	6.4 / 3.1	43 / 73	46.9% / 44.6%	41.9% / 42.5%	71.9% / 38.2%	7.0 / 4.8	2.3% / 0.0%	46.5% / 39.7%	23.4 / 34.2
11	@MIN	23 – 27 L	9.9	31.0% / 57.5%	4.8% / 12.5%	2.5% / 0.0%	6.4 / 7.1	60.6% / 38.9%	18.2% / 38.9%	3.8 / 2.1	75 / 58	45.3% / 52.3%	44.0% / 51.7%	56.1% / 53.3%	5.3 / 5.5	0.0% / 3.4%	44.0% / 31.0%	34.8 / 28.1
12	@BUF	3 – 20 L	-7.9	17.2% / 42.3%	13.8% / 3.8%	4.0% / 4.0%	1.7 / 6.9	58.8% / 44.7%	11.8% / 21.3%	5.0 / 5.2	46 / 73	37.1% / 43.6%	32.6% / 43.8%	41.8% / 52.8%	2.9 / 5.8	0.0% / 0.0%	37.0% / 64.4%	23.3 / 32.4
13	LAC	23 – 20 W	6.4	39.3% / 43.8%	0.0% / 9.4%	3.6% / 3.4%	4.8 / 7.6	44.0% / 51.7%	32.0% / 24.1%	3.4 / 4.0	53 / 61	39.5% / 51.1%	41.5% / 47.5%	39.4% / 54.6%	4.1 / 5.9	0.0% / 1.6%	47.2% / 47.5%	34.8 / 29.1
14	@HOU	38 – 24 W	19.8	60.7% / 41.5%	3.6% / 5.7%	3.7% / 4.0%	10.8 / 5.3	33.3% / 81.8%	14.8% / 4.5%	3.3 / 6.1	55 / 75	45.7% / 56.1%	47.3% / 53.3%	61.1% / 33.3%	7.1 / 5.5	0.0% / 1.3%	49.1% / 29.3%	31.9 / 28.9

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2019 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@JAC	40 – 26 W	11.7	58.8% / 52.9%	0.0% / 2.9%	0.0% / 3.0%	11.1 / 10.2	57.7% / 43.8%	26.9% / 12.5%	4.3 / 5.1	60 / 50	62.5% / 50.0%	58.3% / 50.0%	62.3% / 55.4%	8.2 / 8.6	0.0% / 2.0%	43.3% / 32.0%	38.4 / 23.8
2	@OAK	28 – 10 W	8.3	56.5% / 46.3%	4.3% / 7.3%	0.0% / 5.3%	9.4 / 4.3	36.4% / 52.6%	36.4% / 26.3%	1.4 / 6.8	68 / 60	49.1% / 48.9%	50.0% / 48.3%	62.3% / 38.4%	6.8 / 5.1	1.5% / 0.0%	32.4% / 31.7%	26.2 / 25.3
3	BAL	33 – 28 W	7.1	57.9% / 34.8%	2.6% / 6.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.6 / 5.4	46.2% / 71.9%	26.9% / 6.3%	5.4 / 6.3	64 / 78	55.8% / 50.8%	53.1% / 50.0%	49.5% / 37.6%	7.9 / 5.8	0.0% / 0.0%	40.6% / 41.0%	25.5 / 26.0
4	@DET	34 – 30 W	-1.3	50.0% / 50.0%	0.0% / 10.5%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.5 / 6.9	60.0% / 65.7%	24.0% / 20.0%	4.9 / 5.3	67 / 73	54.4% / 61.7%	53.7% / 57.5%	37.2% / 52.3%	6.5 / 6.1	4.5% / 2.7%	37.3% / 47.9%	22.5 / 33.3
5	IND	13 – 19 L	-1.9	39.5% / 48.3%	9.3% / 0.0%	0.0% / 3.4%	6.7 / 5.2	42.9% / 68.9%	35.7% / 11.1%	2.6 / 4.0	57 / 74	42.9% / 67.9%	40.4% / 60.8%	53.1% / 22.4%	5.7 / 4.5	1.8% / 0.0%	24.6% / 60.8%	25.1 / 32.0
6	HOU	24 – 31 L	2.6	44.4% / 59.5%	2.8% / 0.0%	2.9% / 4.8%	7.1 / 6.7	45.5% / 56.1%	18.2% / 12.2%	4.8 / 4.7	47 / 83	44.7% / 62.1%	44.7% / 57.8%	42.1% / 25.2%	6.6 / 5.7	2.1% / 1.2%	23.4% / 49.4%	27.2 / 32.4
7	@DEN	30 – 6 W	11.6	51.6% / 25.6%	3.2% / 20.9%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.2 / 3.1	33.3% / 42.9%	25.9% / 14.3%	3.0 / 3.4	58 / 64	46.3% / 37.5%	43.1% / 31.3%	43.9% / 37.6%	4.7 / 3.2	0.0% / 1.6%	46.6% / 32.8%	36.8 / 23.4
8	GB	24 – 31 L	-3.7	47.4% / 52.6%	5.3% / 13.2%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.6 / 6.7	75.0% / 57.7%	5.0% / 7.7%	4.4 / 4.5	58 / 64	57.4% / 55.1%	56.9% / 54.7%	38.6% / 48.1%	5.8 / 5.8	1.7% / 0.0%	34.5% / 40.6%	28.6 / 26.6
9	MIN	26 – 23 W	0.3	52.5% / 41.0%	12.5% / 2.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.8 / 5.4	55.6% / 25.9%	22.2% / 25.9%	8.2 / 3.6	58 / 66	60.5% / 34.0%	53.4% / 34.8%	53.6% / 40.6%	6.5 / 4.7	1.7% / 0.0%	31.0% / 40.9%	26.1 / 28.8
10	@TEN	32 – 35 L	3.6	52.8% / 39.1%	3.8% / 17.4%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.2 / 6.3	52.0% / 69.2%	20.0% / 3.8%	3.9 / 8.7	78 / 49	53.2% / 64.1%	52.6% / 55.1%	41.5% / 71.4%	6.8 / 7.6	1.3% / 2.0%	32.1% / 53.1%	30.3 / 24.0
11	@LAC	24 – 17 W	3.2	42.4% / 42.6%	3.0% / 3.7%	3.1% / 7.7%	5.5 / 6.4	51.9% / 47.4%	14.8% / 10.5%	4.8 / 4.9	60 / 73	47.8% / 46.4%	46.7% / 43.8%	36.5% / 44.1%	5.2 / 6.0	0.0% / 0.0%	45.0% / 26.0%	33.6 / 20.8
13	OAK	40 – 9 W	18.8	43.3% / 56.3%	3.3% / 6.3%	0.0% / 6.7%	5.4 / 6.6	55.2% / 56.0%	34.5% / 32.0%	3.3 / 4.9	59 / 57	47.8% / 60.9%	49.2% / 56.1%	29.0% / 34.3%	4.4 / 5.8	0.0% / 1.8%	49.2% / 43.9%	36.1 / 21.4
14	@NE	23 – 16 W	5.9	48.8% / 32.5%	2.4% / 7.5%	2.5% / 2.7%	6.6 / 4.6	31.0% / 45.5%	17.2% / 22.7%	2.6 / 4.3	70 / 62	45.1% / 42.6%	41.4% / 37.1%	36.1% / 42.4%	4.9 / 4.5	1.4% / 0.0%	41.4% / 35.5%	27.8 / 34.8

Denver Broncos @

Kansas City Chiefs

Sun, Dec 15

10:00 AM Pacific

Game Analysis