Denver Broncos @

Jacksonville Jaguars

Sat, Sep 18
9:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 283
Odds: Jacksonville Jaguars +6, Total: 45.5

Game Analysis

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Lean – JACKSONVILLE (+6) over Denver

The preseason number had the Broncos only favored by 3 and the market has now moved up to 6 after one week. Teddy Bridgewater is now 22-3 ATS in 25 career road starts but I think that is mostly random. Bridgewater was impressive in averaging 6.7 yppp against a solid Giants secondary but he made some unsustainable plays under pressure including a touchdown to Albert Okwuegbunam on fourth down and I expect him to regress.

WR Jerry Jeudy had six receptions for 72 yards before going down with an ankle injury last week, but I do not think the loss will make a noticeable difference to Denver’s offense. WR Tim Patrick averaged more yards per route run (1.71) than Jeudy did a season ago (1.66).

The Jaguars had three turnovers and missed a field goal last week in their loss to the Texans. Jacksonville was nearly even with Houston in yards per play and the 21-37 final score makes the Jags’ performance look worse than it was. The Jaguars only need to score 20 points to outdo their market expectation and Trevor Lawrence still has an uncertainty advantage. Rookie quarterbacks are 28-14-2 ATS in the first three weeks since 2013 before defensive coordinators have enough film to make meaningful adjustments.

Our model favors the Broncos by only 2.9 points, with a predicted total of 43.2 points, but I’ll just lean with Jacksonville.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Broncos
  • Jaguars
DEN
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 38.0 39.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 52.6% 48.7%
  • Sack Rate 5.3% 5.1%
  • Int Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 19.4% 19.4%
  • Big Pass Yards 25.4% 37.1%
  • NYPP 6.9 6.8



Rush


  • Rush Plays 28.0 20.0
  • RB YPR 5.8 2.1
  • Stuff Rate 21.4% 20.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 39.3% 45.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 49.7% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 5.9 3.0




Game

  • All Snaps 66.0 59.0
  • Early Down Succ 45.7% 47.7%
  • Succ Rate 47.0% 47.5%
  • Big Yards Rate 34.7% 30.3%
  • Yards Per Play 6.5 5.5
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.5% 1.7%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 32.1 25.0
  • Run Ratio 42.4% 33.9%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.0 0.0
  • Game Control 4.9 -4.9
 
  • Points 27.0 13.0
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