Denver Broncos @

Dallas Cowboys

Sun, Nov 7
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 453
Odds: Dallas Cowboys -10, Total: 49.5

Game Analysis

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Strong Opinion – Denver Team Total Over (19.5 -115)

Lean – Denver (+10) over DALLAS

Lean – Over 49.5

The Broncos will not have familiar faces at key positions this week. Denver traded perennial All-Pro edge defender Von Miller (10th in pass rushing efficiency) and is still without starting linebackers Alexander Johnson and Josey Jewell. Left tackle Garett Bolles will miss Sunday’s game with high-ankle sprain and is worth 0.6 points. Bryce Callahan is conceding only 0.78 yards per cover snap in the slot since the start of last season, but he is now unavailable with a hyperextended knee.

The Cowboys have an injury issue of their own with LT Tyron Smith likely missing this week. Smith leads all tackles in pass blocking efficiency, but RT La’el Collins is back in the mix and that could slide Terence Steele to left tackle. Steele ranks 7th in pass blocking efficiency this season. CeeDee Lamb is averaging 2.43 yards per route run (7th) and Dak Prescott will feature him across from CB Ronald Darby, who is surrendering 1.54 yards per cover snap.

Dallas CB Trevon Diggs is overrated because of his 7 interceptions. Diggs is surrendering 1.68 yards per cover snap, which ranks 73rd out of 75 qualifying CBs and he has no chance of staying with Courtland Sutton, who has 7 deep receptions (4th). Diggs is also banged up with a right ankle sprain. The Broncos also have an advantage in that they target tight ends on 27.8% of passes (4th) and the Cowboys are allowing 9.1 yards per target to opposing TEs.

Although Teddy Bridgewater might not be able to take advantage of his matchups on the backend, as backup LT Calvin Anderson will struggle versus edge defender Randy Gregory, who 4th in pass rushing efficiency. Dallas DT Osa Odighizuwa has 22 pressures, and the rookie should cause problems for Lloyd Cushenberry, who ranks 25th out of 28 qualifying centers in pass blocking efficiency.

Our model favors the Cowboys by 7.7 points, with a predicted total of 51.9 points and the Denver Team Total Over 19.5 is a Strong Opinion up to -120 odds.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Broncos
  • Cowboys
DEN
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 37.88 35.75
  • Succ Pass Plays 46.2% 45.1%
  • Sack Rate 8.3% 7.0%
  • Int Rate 2.2% 2.3%
  • Deep Pass Rate 18.3% 21.5%
  • Big Pass Yards 30.9% 47.1%
  • NYPP 6.19 6.29



Rush


  • Rush Plays 23.50 24.25
  • RB YPR 4.38 4.08
  • Stuff Rate 25.0% 18.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 44.7% 55.2%
  • Big Rush Yards 46.1% 31.7%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.41 4.16




Game

  • All Snaps 61.38 60.00
  • Early Down Succ 49.7% 51.6%
  • Succ Rate 45.3% 48.5%
  • Big Yards Rate 34.3% 41.2%
  • Yards Per Play 5.51 5.43
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.8% 0.4%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 30.47 28.63
  • Run Ratio 38.1% 39.9%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control -0.98 0.98
 
  • Points 19.63 17.13
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