Denver Broncos @ Cleveland Browns Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – CLEVELAND (-1.5) over Denver

Lean – Under (41)

The Browns will be without quarterback Baker Mayfield, their top two running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, as well as potentially both starting tackles on Thursday night. Mayfield was averaging 6.2 yppp the last four games playing with a completely torn left labrum and I agree with the move to bench him while he recovers. Kevin Stefanski was Case Keenum’s QB coach in 2017 when he averaged 6.8 yppp. Keenum is only one point worse than Mayfield according to our numbers. However, Cleveland’s offense will be 2.5 points worse without all of the missing starters

The Browns target running backs on 24.4% of passes (5th), which could be higher this week as the Broncos are without starting LBs Josey Jewell and Alexander Johnson. Keenum will have to get the ball out quickly as backup tackle Blake Hance has no chance of staying in front of edge defender Von Miller, who ranks 10th in pass rushing efficiency.

Chubb and Hunt are averaging 0.26 avoided tackles per attempt since the start of last season while backup D’Ernest Johnson has just 6 missed tackles forced on 36 carries. I do not expect much from Johnson versus Denver’s 6th-rated rush defense.

Teddy Bridgewater found WR Courtland Sutton for seven first-down receptions last week, but he will be limited on Sunday across from Browns CB Denzel Ward, who conceded only two receptions for 12 yards against the Cardinals. Broncos RT Bobby Massie has surrendered 4 sacks and will struggle across from edge defender Jadeveon Clowney, who ranks 5th in pass rushing efficiency. Cleveland interior defender Malik Jackson has 18 pressures (11th) while Denver RG Graham Glasgow and C Lloyd Cushenberry surrendered 3 sacks last week.

Our model favors the Browns by 3.5 points, with a predicted total of 39.6 points, and Cleveland’s screen game, which should work very well in this contest, is better suited for the wind than Denver’s vertical pass attack.

Team Stats
Game Log

Broncos
Browns

DEN

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 39.00 34.57
Succ Pass Plays 46.7% 45.9%
Sack Rate 7.5% 6.0%
Int Rate 2.1% 1.7%
Deep Pass Rate 18.8% 21.8%
Big Pass Yards 30.3% 44.2%
NYPP 6.32 6.75

Rush

Rush Plays 23.86 24.14
RB YPR 4.59 3.79
Stuff Rate 24.7% 18.6%
Succ Rush Plays 44.3% 52.7%
Big Rush Yards 43.4% 26.7%
Yards Per Rush 4.61 3.96

Game

All Snaps 62.86 58.71
Early Down Succ 49.6% 50.3%
Succ Rate 45.1% 48.0%
Big Yards Rate 35.0% 41.2%
Yards Per Play 5.65 5.45
Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 0.5%
Time Per Play (sec) 30.08 28.78
Run Ratio 37.6% 40.5%
Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
Game Control -1.49 1.49

Points 20.00 18.14

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@NYG	27 – 13 W	4.88	52.6% / 48.7%	5.3% / 5.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.71 / 6.51	39.3% / 45.0%	21.4% / 20.0%	5.89 / 3.00	66 / 59	45.7% / 47.7%	47.0% / 47.5%	34.7% / 30.3%	6.36 / 5.32	1.5% / 1.7%	42.4% / 33.9%	0.00 / 0.00
2	@JAX	23 – 13 W	3.44	51.4% / 32.4%	8.1% / 2.9%	0.0% / 6.1%	8.16 / 3.35	46.7% / 50.0%	33.3% / 18.8%	3.20 / 4.69	67 / 50	56.9% / 36.8%	49.3% / 38.0%	34.9% / 42.5%	5.94 / 3.78	0.0% / 0.0%	44.8% / 32.0%	0.00 / 0.00
3	NYJ	26 – 0 W	13.14	55.6% / 35.0%	7.4% / 12.5%	0.0% / 5.7%	8.26 / 2.98	43.2% / 53.8%	35.1% / 15.4%	3.27 / 3.31	64 / 53	51.9% / 47.2%	48.4% / 39.6%	53.1% / 28.6%	5.38 / 3.06	1.6% / 0.0%	57.8% / 24.5%	0.00 / 0.00
4	BLT	7 – 23 L	-6.17	28.6% / 50.0%	11.9% / 7.5%	2.7% / 0.0%	3.52 / 7.60	47.1% / 58.6%	11.8% / 17.2%	6.24 / 3.28	59 / 69	40.5% / 59.6%	33.9% / 53.6%	34.9% / 40.9%	4.31 / 5.78	0.0% / 0.0%	28.8% / 42.0%	0.00 / 0.00
5	@PIT	19 – 27 L	-8.83	47.5% / 53.8%	5.0% / 3.8%	2.6% / 0.0%	6.70 / 9.38	38.9% / 45.7%	27.8% / 20.0%	5.89 / 4.20	58 / 61	52.5% / 47.9%	44.8% / 49.2%	45.7% / 51.3%	6.45 / 6.41	0.0% / 1.6%	31.0% / 57.4%	0.00 / 0.00
6	LV	24 – 34 L	-9.24	48.1% / 48.3%	9.3% / 6.9%	6.1% / 0.0%	5.72 / 11.72	52.2% / 52.2%	21.7% / 17.4%	4.87 / 3.74	77 / 52	58.2% / 55.0%	49.4% / 50.0%	28.3% / 64.4%	5.47 / 8.19	1.3% / 0.0%	29.9% / 44.2%	0.00 / 0.00
7	@CLV	14 – 17 L	-7.62	42.9% / 52.9%	5.7% / 2.9%	3.0% / 0.0%	5.20 / 5.71	42.9% / 63.6%	21.4% / 21.2%	2.93 / 5.52	49 / 67	41.7% / 58.0%	42.9% / 58.2%	13.6% / 30.7%	4.55 / 5.61	0.0% / 0.0%	28.6% / 49.3%	0.00 / 0.00

2021 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@KC	29 – 33 L	5.25	60.0% / 60.5%	6.7% / 5.3%	3.6% / 0.0%	10.13 / 8.53	76.0% / 56.5%	8.0% / 21.7%	6.12 / 3.17	55 / 61	72.7% / 57.4%	67.3% / 59.0%	48.3% / 36.3%	8.31 / 6.51	1.8% / 0.0%	45.5% / 37.7%	0.00 / 0.00
2	HST	31 – 21 W	2.85	73.9% / 50.0%	8.7% / 3.3%	4.8% / 3.4%	8.65 / 7.33	50.0% / 39.3%	26.5% / 35.7%	4.59 / 2.93	57 / 58	63.8% / 41.9%	59.6% / 44.8%	39.6% / 40.8%	6.23 / 5.21	1.8% / 0.0%	59.6% / 48.3%	0.00 / 0.00
3	CHI	26 – 6 W	5.84	47.2% / 13.8%	13.9% / 31.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	5.64 / 0.03	42.9% / 38.5%	21.4% / 23.1%	5.12 / 3.54	78 / 42	45.6% / 29.6%	44.9% / 21.4%	43.8% / 14.0%	5.36 / 1.12	0.0% / 0.0%	53.8% / 31.0%	0.00 / 0.00
4	@MIN	14 – 7 W	-0.13	33.3% / 35.0%	8.3% / 5.0%	0.0% / 2.6%	3.97 / 4.75	47.4% / 34.8%	10.5% / 39.1%	4.84 / 2.83	74 / 63	42.6% / 37.2%	40.5% / 34.9%	34.2% / 47.4%	4.42 / 4.05	0.0% / 0.0%	51.4% / 36.5%	0.00 / 0.00
5	@LAC	42 – 47 L	2.61	54.5% / 46.7%	3.0% / 4.4%	0.0% / 0.0%	9.12 / 8.47	57.1% / 60.9%	17.1% / 13.0%	6.57 / 4.87	68 / 68	63.5% / 51.0%	55.9% / 51.5%	53.6% / 54.5%	7.81 / 7.25	0.0% / 1.5%	51.5% / 33.8%	0.00 / 0.00
6	ARZ	14 – 37 L	-12.22	41.7% / 46.9%	13.9% / 6.3%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.03 / 6.50	31.6% / 40.5%	26.3% / 32.4%	3.84 / 3.89	55 / 69	44.7% / 40.4%	38.2% / 43.5%	52.7% / 44.0%	5.27 / 5.10	3.6% / 0.0%	34.5% / 53.6%	0.00 / 0.00
7	DEN	17 – 14 W	7.62	52.9% / 42.9%	2.9% / 5.7%	0.0% / 3.0%	5.71 / 5.20	63.6% / 42.9%	21.2% / 21.4%	5.52 / 2.93	67 / 49	58.0% / 41.7%	58.2% / 42.9%	30.7% / 13.6%	5.61 / 4.55	0.0% / 0.0%	49.3% / 28.6%	0.00 / 0.00

Denver Broncos @

Cleveland Browns

Thu, Oct 21

5:20 PM Pacific

Game Analysis