Game Analysis

Lean – CHICAGO (+3) over Denver

Lean – Over (46)

· The Broncos surrendered 70 points last week and the market moved toward them from the lookahead line (-2.5 to -3) which speaks to the state of the Chicago Bears.

· Justin Fields did try to get back to his game from last season as he raised his average air yards per attempt from 5.3 in the first two games to 15.1 last week. Fields also had 11 rushes in Kansas City. However, Chicago’s offense was shut out until garbage time.

· The only way out of this for Fields is to keep throwing deep and scrambling. Denver’s defense has allowed a league-high 79% completion rate on throws with at least 10 air yards. Broncos’ three-time second-team All-Pro free safety Justin Simmons could be out for the second straight game.

· Denver’s defense has only a 21% pressure rate. The next worst defense is the Jaguars at 28% and the league average is 35%. Chicago’s offensive line will have guard Nate Davis making his debut for the team on Sunday after he signed a three-year, $30 million contract this spring.

· The Bears are targeting running backs on a league-high 30% of passes and the Broncos are the only defense to allow more than 200 receiving yards to opposing running backs.

· Denver cornerback Pat Surtain was rated 2nd in coverage grade by PFF last season and he will limit wide receiver DJ Moore, who is one of 20 wide receivers gaining more than 2 adjusted yards per route run.

· Chicago’s secondary will likely be without starting safety Eddie Jackson as well as three cornerbacks, most notably Jaylon Johnson, who ranks 3rd in coverage grade by PFF.

· The Bears spent $20 million in cap space on linebackers Tremaine Edmunds and TJ Edwards. The pair has allowed opposing quarterbacks to go 25/27 for 234 yards into their coverage. Chicago’s defense is surrendering 8.9 yards per target to opposing running backs (31st) and Russell Wilson will look for RB Samaje Perine, who is gaining 1.33 yards per route run (4th).

· Our model makes Denver a 0.4-point favorite with a predicted total of 46.4. I’ll lean with Chicago, and I’ll lean over based on the favorable matchups for both offenses.