Game Analysis

BUFFALO (-8.5) vs Denver

Strong Opinion – Keon Coleman (BUF) Longest Reception Over 17.5 Yards (Constraint is 18.5)

Alternate in case your book doesn’t have Longest Reception – Keon Coleman Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (Constraint is 32.5)

• Bo Nix did a great job avoiding negative plays during his rookie season which was the calling card of Denver’s offense. Nix had only a 4.1% sack rate (6th). The next best qualifying rookie was Spencer Rattler at 8.5% (32nd).
• Nix’s 1.9% turnover-worthy play rate was the 3rd-best by a rookie in the last 15 years.
• However, the bread-and-butter plays for Nix and Denver’s offense are going to be limited on Sunday. Buffalo’s defense has a 64% two-high safety rate (4th-highest) and Nix’s yppp against two-high is only 88% of his yppp versus single-high safety coverages (27th).
• Broncos WR Courtland Sutton averaged 1.1 yards per route run fewer against two-high than single-high this season.
• Denver’s running backs have a 21% target share (5th-highest), but the Bills are conceding a 41% receiving success rate to opposing running backs (9th) and are likely only getting better in that department with top coverage LB Matt Milano getting more snaps after he missed 13 games this season.
• Buffalo’s offense has a 45% rush success rate (5th) but I believe they will mostly be contained on the ground as the Broncos are conceding just -0.18 EPA/rush (4th).
• The Bills starting offensive linemen have missed a combined one game due to injury over the past two seasons and the continuity will help against a Broncos defense with a 42% blitz rate (3rd-highest) and a 40% pressure rate (2nd).
• Buffalo’s offense line ranks 4th in pass-blocking efficiency. However, Denver’s defense did post a 40% pressure rate earlier this season against Tampa Bay’s offensive line that ranked 2nd in pass-blocking efficiency.
• The Broncos’ defense has a 34% man-coverage rate (6th-highest) and rookie WR Keon Coleman leads the Bills with a 26% target rate versus man.
• I expect Josh Allen to feature Coleman as Buffalo WR Amari Cooper is likely to line up across from CB Pat Surtain, who allowed -25.6 EPA (3rd). Surtain conceded only 5.7 yards per target in shadow coverage versus some of the NFL’s best WRs this year in Ja’Marr Chase, Drake London, Garrett Wilson, George Pickens, and Mike Evans.
• Our model favors the Bills by 8.7 points, with a predicted total of 48.7 points.  If I had to play this game I would rather have Buffalo, as the Bills apply to a 39-18-1 ATS playoff big home favorite situation.