Game Analysis

BALTIMORE (-8) vs Denver

· The Ravens dropped five passes versus the Jaguars last week and still gained 6.1 yards per play. One of those drops was in the endzone by TE Mark Andrews, who has a 60% success rate (3rd).

· Baltimore’s offense now has 14 possessions into opponent territory in the last two games resulting in only 33 points which is roughly half of the expected scoring.

· RG Kevin Zeitler ranks 15th in pass blocking efficiency and should hold up across from Denver interior defender Dre’Mont Jones, who has 37 pressures (8th).

· Broncos edge rusher Baron Browning has a 15.4% pressure rate and Ravens left tackle Ronnie Stanley’s possible return will be worth monitoring. Stanley has conceded only three pressures in his six games.

· Baltimore’s ball carriers outside of Lamar Jackson are gaining 3.7 yards per carry in games with Stanley compared to 5.1 yards per rush without the starting left tackle (per Tom Strachan).

· Denver’s offensive line is a disaster without three starters as Russell Wilson had a 45% dropback pressure rate last week.

· Meanwhile, the Ravens defensive line is trending in the opposite direction due to signing edge rusher Jason Pierre-Paul and getting edge rusher Tyus Bowser in the lineup after he sat out to start the season because he tore his Achilles during the 2021 season finale. Baltimore’s defense has a 10.7% sack rate in the last three games.

· Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy is averaging 0.31 EPA/target (27th) but he is likely out again. Ravens CB Marlon Humphrey ranks 7th in coverage grade by PFF and he will shut down WR Courtland Sutton.

· Denver’s ground game will be smothered as Baltimore’s defense is conceding only 3.9 yards per rush (3rd).

· Our model favors the Ravens by 11.4 points, with a predicted total of 40.1 points but the situation strongly favors the Broncos, who apply to a 101-33-3 ATS bounce-back situation. I think 8 is the fair line given the situation.