Denver Broncos @

Atlanta Falcons

Sun, Nov 8
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation:
Odds: Atlanta Falcons -3.5, Total: 50

Game Analysis

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2-Star Best Bet – Over (48.5) – ATLANTA vs Denver

Lean – Atlanta (-3.5/-4)

Denver’s total closed at 44.5 last Sunday in a divisional game against the Chargers that was played outdoors on grass with a 10-mph wind. This week, we saw the total move up only 4 points despite significantly better conditions for scoring. The difference in familiarity between a divisional opponent and non-conference opponent at this point in the season accounts for 1.1 points. Turf games have scores about 1.2 points higher than games on grass and there is a notable difference in scoring between no wind and above-average wind. All told, you can get from 44.5 to 48.5 just based on just the conditions before accounting for the Falcons having a better offense and worse defense than the Chargers.

Atlanta’s offense is underrated due to Julio Jones’ injury early this season. Matt Ryan is averaging 8.2 yards per pass play in the five games with Jones healthy, compared to 5.6 yppp in the three games when Jones was hurt with a hamstring injury. Jones is averaging 2.83 yards per route run (3rd) and should destroy Broncos’ rookie CB Michael Ojemudia on Sunday. WR Calvin Ridley (foot) and Broncos CB AJ Bouye (concussion) are both questionable. Although, I would say Ridley is probably the more likely of the two to play as of Wednesday, which would help our cause.

Denver’s Drew Lock has the highest average air yards per attempt (9.9) among all QBs with at least 100 dropbacks this season and Denver’s offense should be able to hit some deep shots against the Falcons’ secondary. The Broncos love to feature inside receivers, with 60 targets to players lined up in the slot thus far. Isaiah Oliver is allowing 1.44 yards per slot cover snap, which ranks 18th out of 24 qualifying nickelbacks. Also, Atlanta’s defense is surrendering over 10 yards per target to opposing TEs and Denver’s offense is targeting their tight ends at the 4th-highest rate in the league. Lock should build upon his second half last week as long as the middle of his offensive line holds up. DT Grady Jarrett ranks 9th in pass rushing efficiency and Denver’s interior offensive line is surrendering 9.4 pressures per game. However, the Broncos will likely catch a break with Falcons’ edge defender Takkarist McKinley probably out again with a groin injury.

Our model favors the Falcons by 6.6 points, with a predicted total of 53.8 points, and Denver applies to a 30-80-3 ATS road letdown situation based on last week’s upset home win. I’ll lean with Atlanta and the Over is a 2-Star Best Bet at 49.5 or less and 1-Star at 50 (Strong Opinion at 50.5).

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Broncos
  • Falcons
DEN
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 41.3 42.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 39.6% 49.8%
  • Sack Rate 9.5% 3.2%
  • Int Rate 2.6% 0.8%
  • Deep Pass Rate 22.2% 13.1%
  • Big Pass Yards 45.5% 39.4%
  • NYPP 5.1 6.6



Rush


  • Rush Plays 22.0 27.0
  • RB YPR 3.7 3.9
  • Stuff Rate 27.5% 24.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 45.2% 48.6%
  • Big Rush Yards 32.6% 39.3%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.7 3.8




Game

  • All Snaps 63.3 69.0
  • Early Down Succ 44.5% 53.0%
  • Succ Rate 41.9% 49.3%
  • Big Yards Rate 43.3% 40.3%
  • Yards Per Play 4.6 5.6
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 0.5%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 26.9 27.7
  • Run Ratio 34.6% 38.8%
  • Starting Field Pos 26.1 31.1
  • Game Control -6.4 6.4
 
  • Points 15.0 23.3
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