Dallas Cowboys @

Washington Football Team

Sun, Dec 12
10:00 AM Pacific
Rotation: 117
Odds: Washington Football Team +4.5, Total: 48

Game Analysis

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2-Star Best Bet – **WASHINGTON (+5) over Dallas

Dak Prescott had a fully intact offensive line and receiver group for the first game all year last Thursday in New Orleans. I think the Dallas offense is now nearly 2 points better than their metrics indicate but Washington still has value this week. Washington is underrated due to a strength of schedule that is 2.6 points tougher than average according to our numbers. Washington’s defensive line will trouble Prescott as LG Connor McGovern is not going to win the battle against WFT DT Jonathan Allen, who ranks 2nd in pass rushing efficiency.

Trevon Diggs is surrendering 1.69 yards per cover snap, and he will allow at least one deep pass against Terry McLaurin, who has 9 receptions on passes with 20+ air yards (5th). I also trust Taylor Heinicke to get through the backdoor with a late score if necessary.

Our model favors the Cowboys by only 1.4 points, with a predicted total of 49.1 points, and Washington applies to a 102-41-4 ATS home underdog momentum situation. Washington is a 2-Star Best Bet at +4.5 points or more and a 1-Star play at +4.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Cowboys
  • Football Team
DAL
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 40.25 38.58
  • Succ Pass Plays 50.1% 43.0%
  • Sack Rate 4.3% 5.6%
  • Int Rate 1.9% 4.3%
  • Deep Pass Rate 17.6% 17.4%
  • Big Pass Yards 38.7% 48.1%
  • NYPP 7.14 6.78



Rush


  • Rush Plays 27.58 24.75
  • RB YPR 4.70 4.30
  • Stuff Rate 19.0% 22.2%
  • Succ Rush Plays 47.4% 48.5%
  • Big Rush Yards 43.1% 42.9%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.63 4.49




Game

  • All Snaps 67.83 63.33
  • Early Down Succ 52.1% 49.3%
  • Succ Rate 49.0% 45.1%
  • Big Yards Rate 40.1% 46.6%
  • Yards Per Play 6.12 5.88
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.9% 0.5%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.44 28.97
  • Run Ratio 40.7% 39.1%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control 1.65 -1.65
 
  • Points 29.42 22.25
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