Game Analysis

WASHINGTON (-10) vs Dallas

• Jayden Daniels has averaged 19 rushing yards per game in the last 3 weeks after averaging 53 rushing yards per game in the first 9 weeks of the season, indicating that the rookie may not being fully healthy due to the ribs injury.
• Daniels should have protection on Sunday as Commanders RT Andrew Wylie ranks 13th in pass-blocking efficiency and he will limit edge defender Micah Parsons, who has a 20% pressure rate.
• Cowboys’ interior defender Osa Odighizuwa has 28 pressures (14th) but he will be contained by RG Sam Cosmi, who ranks 9th in pass blocking efficiency.
• The Dallas defense is surrendering 0.38 EPA/target to opposing running backs (30th) and they will struggle to defend screens to Austin Ekeler, who leads running backs with 1.95 yards per route run.
• Washington’s running backs also have a favorable matchup on the ground. The Commanders have a 45% rush success rate (5th) and the Cowboys are surrendering a league-high 0.08 EPA/rush.
• Dallas All-Pro cornerback DaRon Bland could suit up for his first game of the season this week and the Cowboys’ defense also looks like they are getting back nickelback Jourdan Lewis, who is conceding only 0.74 yards per cover snap in the slot (2nd).
• However, the Dallas offense lost TE Jake Ferguson last game and both starting guards, likely leaving backups to line up across from Washington DT Daron Payne, who has 26 pressures (19th).
• Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb leads the NFL with 363 yards versus man-coverage and Dallas has a yards per attempt against man a league-high 23% more than the yards per attempt against zone coverage. The Commanders have a 32% man-coverage rate (7th-highest) and they could struggle versus Lamb this week.
• Our model makes Washington a 9.1-point favorite with a predicted total of 40.6 points, but this game does apply to a 51-23-3 Over situation (team coming off a Thursday game against a team coming off a Monday game).