Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – TAMPA BAY (+3 -120) over Dallas

· The Buccaneers have the worst ground game in the NFL according to our metrics and Dallas ranks 8th in EPA/rush allowed excluding fumbles. Tampa Bay offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich would be wise to not attempt to establish the run given that the Cowboys secondary is reeling without starting cornerbacks Anthony Brown and Jourdan Lewis.

· Dallas was conceding a 43% dropback success rate through the first seven weeks of the season (7th) with the starting secondary intact and then lost Lewis. The Cowboys persisted the next month and a half missing only one starter but they’re surrendering a 49% success rate the last five games (28th) without both Lewis and Brown.

· Leftwich has been criticized this year for running the ball too often in spite of its ineffectiveness, but it is noteworthy the Buccaneers lead the NFL with a 67% pass play rate and I expect Tom Brady to get plenty of work in this game.

· Dallas defensive coordinator Dan Quinn has not found a sufficient replacement for CB Anthony Brown, who has been out with a torn Achilles since week 14. Nahshon Wright, Kelvin Joseph, and Trayvon Mullen have all gotten at least 40 cover snaps and none have definitively grabbed the starting spot.

· Mike Evans has 30 targets with 20+ air yards this year (3rd) and you can bet Brady will attack downfield whenever Evans isn’t lined up across from Trevon Diggs, the only remaining starting Cowboys cornerback.

· Dallas backup nickelback DaRon Bland is surrendering 0.55 yards per cover snap in the slot more than starter Jourdan Lewis. Brady will find WR Chris Godwin on quick slants when he’s lined up on the inside versus Bland.

· Tampa Bay’s offense had a 55% success rate when targeting Leonard Fournette this season, ranking 2nd among RBs, and he should get plenty of looks this week as the Cowboys are surrendering 6.2 yards per target to opposing running backs (26th).

· The quicker developing routes from Godwin and the release valve provided by Fournette will be critical for Brady against the nasty Dallas pass rush. Edge defender Micah Parsons leads the NFL in pass rushing efficiency and Demarcus Lawrence has 55 pressures (18th).

· The Buccaneers are much stronger at limiting pass rush from the edge than up the middle. RT Tristan Wirfs returned in week 16 after missing 3 games and he leads all tackles in pass blocking efficiency. It looks like LT Donovan Smith will be back in good shape after being sidelined by a foot ailment in week 16 and holding out last week as a precaution.

· The Cowboys have sorted through different offensive line combinations with center Tyler Biadasz out. Biadasz is pushing to come back this week, but I would be surprised if he is able to suit up productively after getting a high ankle sprain on December 29th. Connor McGovern moved to center, Tyler Smith shifted inside to left guard, Jason Peters slid to left tackle, and Tyron Smith has been forced to play right tackle since the loss of Terence Steele.

· This offensive line grouping only allowed 8 pressures last week, but it could be worse in this game because they will have the inexperience of rookie Tyler Smith out of position against Tampa Bay interior defender Vita Vea, who ranks 10th in pass rushing efficiency.

· Dak Prescott has only established a convincing connection with one receiver this year with CeeDee Lamb averaging 2.43 yards per route run in the slot (4th).

· The Buccaneers have had nine defenders get at least 20 cover snaps defending slot receivers this season. Safety Antoine Winfield is the best option inside for this game as he concedes only 0.94 yards per cover snap in the slot.

· Tampa Bay’s rush defense is conceding just a 39% success rate (7th) and I’m not expecting anything extraordinary from Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard.

· Our model favors the Buccaneers by 0.7 points, with a predicted total of 46.3 points and playoff road favorites or picks are just 17-31-1 ATS in the playoffs over the years, including 1-6 ATS for teams coming off a loss. This is also the Cowboys’ third consecutive week on the road, which is also a negative (117-146-1 ATS since 1980, including 24-36-1 ATS in the playoffs).

Tampa Bay is a Strong Opinion at +2.5 or more.