Dallas Cowboys @

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Thu, Sep 9
9:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 451
Odds: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8, Total: 51.5

Game Analysis

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TAMPA BAY (-8) vs Dallas

Lean – Over 51.5

Tampa Bay started last season a bit slowly but the defending Super Bowl champs will likely pick up where they left off with continuity on their side this time around. Tom Brady had to deal with a covid offseason his first year in Tampa Bay and the Buccaneers started 7-5 but went on an eight-game winning streak after their bye in week 13. Tampa Bay’s full season offensive numbers should improve in 2021 and our model ranks them 2nd on that side of the ball.

The Buccaneers return every key piece on defense from the unit that held the Chiefs to 9 points in the Super Bowl. There’s reason to believe they could improve with the consistency in personnel and another year of experience for their young secondary. Safety Antoine Winfield, along with CBs Carlton Davis, Jamel Dean, and Sean Murphy-Bunting, have all been drafted since 2018.

Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott averaged 7.7 yards per pass play last season before going down with a broken ankle. Prescott also averaged 7.7 yppp in 2019 (3rd) when the Cowboys finished 6th in scoring. I’d be hard pressed to see Dallas finishing outside the top 10 in scoring this year if Prescott is healthy. The Cowboys offense will once again have one of the league’s best offensive lines with LT Tyron Smith and RT La’el Collins coming back from injuries. However, RG Zack Martin (4x All-Pro) will likely miss the opener due to covid.

Dan Quinn is probably one of the league’s worst defensive coordinators and Atlanta’s defense drastically improved when he gave up play calling in 2019. The Dallas defense could be one of the worst in the NFL with Quinn game-planning and calling the defensive plays. Linebacker is the most replaceable position in football and the Cowboys have used two first round picks in the last four years on Leighton Vander Esch and Micah Parsons as well as spending $9.8 million in cap space on Jaylon Smith. That’s just a waste of money and foolish team management.

Our model favors the Buccaneers by 8.3 points with a predicted total of 51.9 points. The matchups favor the over enough to lean that way at 52 or less.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Cowboys
  • Buccaneers


  • Pass Plays 0.0 0.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 0.0% 0.0%
  • Sack Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Int Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Pass Yards 0.0% 0.0%
  • NYPP 0.0 0.0


  • Rush Plays 0.0 0.0
  • RB YPR 0.0 0.0
  • Stuff Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 0.0% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 0.0 0.0


  • All Snaps 0.0 0.0
  • Early Down Succ 0.0% 0.0%
  • Succ Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Big Yards Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Play 0.0 0.0
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 0.0%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 0.0 0.0
  • Run Ratio 0.0% 0.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.0 0.0
  • Game Control 0.0 0.0
  • Points 0.0 0.0
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