Dallas Cowboys @ Seattle Seahawks Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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SEATTLE (-5) vs Dallas

Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott are both making cases for MVP so far in 2020. The Seahawks are finally unleashing Wilson and last week 16 of his 30 dropbacks came on first down after years of wasting early downs on 2-yard runs. Wilson is thriving and has almost as many touchdowns (9) as incompletions (11) this season. Dallas has the 4th-best rush defense by our numbers so Seattle may be encouraged to continue throwing the ball on early downs against the soft Cowboys secondary that is without starting CB Chidobe Awuzie (hamstring).

DK Metcalf was consistently shadowed by Stephon Gilmore on Sunday night, lining up against the Defensive Player of the Year on 87% of his routes. Metcalf had success as a receiver when Gilmore was the nearest defender, with 3 receptions for 85 yards and a touchdown on 5 targets. Metcalf is gaining more than two and a half yards per route run in 2020 and it seems that the second-year receiver has taken a leap. Our metrics expect Seattle’s offense to rank 2nd in the NFL the rest of the way.

Quarterback Dak Prescott went 9-for-15 for 243 yards on 10+ yard passes last week in the Cowboys’ stunning comeback against the Falcons. Prescott ranks in the top 10 in yards per pass play for the second-straight season and his WRs are accounting for nearly two-thirds of his production. Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and CeeDee Lamb have excellent matchups on Sunday as the Seahawks have surrendered 731 receiving yards to opposing WRs in the first two weeks, more than 200 yards more than any other team.

All of the fundamentals of this game are calling for a shootout, which is why we’re seeing this total in the mid 50s, but 20+mph winds on Sunday in Seattle could make it difficult for both of these passing offenses to live up to expectations.

Our model favors the Seahawks by 3.6 points, with a predicted total of 52.3 points (adjusted for the expected bad weather).

Team Stats
Game Log

Cowboys
Seahawks

DAL

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 46.0 35.0
Succ Pass Plays 55.2% 50.5%
Sack Rate 4.6% 2.9%
Int Rate 0.0% 1.6%
Deep Pass Rate 14.9% 21.0%
Big Pass Yards 36.5% 50.0%
NYPP 7.4 7.7

Rush

Rush Plays 29.0 37.0
RB YPR 4.3 3.5
Stuff Rate 12.0% 15.1%
Succ Rush Plays 61.9% 52.3%
Big Rush Yards 38.9% 16.5%
Yards Per Rush 4.5 3.6

Game

All Snaps 75.0 72.0
Early Down Succ 63.0% 50.5%
Succ Rate 57.8% 51.4%
Big Yards Rate 38.5% 39.2%
Yards Per Play 6.3 5.6
Fumble Lost Rate 1.9% 0.0%
Time Per Play (sec) 20.3 29.0
Run Ratio 38.7% 51.4%
Starting Field Pos 25.7 34.9
Game Control -8.0 8.0

Points 28.5 29.5

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@LA	17 – 20 L	-3.4	52.4% / 56.3%	7.1% / 3.1%	0.0% / 3.2%	5.8 / 8.4	59.3% / 57.5%	11.1% / 12.5%	5.0 / 3.8	69 / 72	63.0% / 57.7%	55.1% / 56.9%	30.8% / 40.3%	5.5 / 5.9	0.0% / 0.0%	39.1% / 55.6%	27.1 / 29.0
2	ATL	40 – 39 W	-12.6	58.0% / 44.7%	2.0% / 2.6%	0.0% / 0.0%	8.9 / 7.0	64.5% / 47.1%	12.9% / 17.6%	4.0 / 3.3	81 / 72	63.1% / 43.4%	60.5% / 45.8%	46.1% / 38.2%	7.0 / 5.3	3.7% / 0.0%	38.3% / 47.2%	24.4 / 40.8

2020 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@ATL	38 – 25 W	8.5	57.9% / 50.0%	7.9% / 3.6%	0.0% / 1.9%	7.9 / 7.8	55.0% / 47.6%	15.0% / 23.8%	4.2 / 3.4	58 / 77	61.7% / 50.8%	56.9% / 49.4%	38.1% / 35.6%	6.6 / 6.6	0.0% / 1.3%	34.5% / 27.3%	31.3 / 24.7
2	NE	35 – 30 W	0.4	70.0% / 57.8%	6.7% / 2.2%	3.6% / 2.3%	9.2 / 8.8	66.7% / 36.0%	10.0% / 28.0%	5.1 / 2.7	60 / 70	71.7% / 48.2%	68.3% / 50.0%	36.6% / 33.0%	7.2 / 6.6	0.0% / 0.0%	50.0% / 35.7%	31.4 / 17.6

Dallas Cowboys @

Seattle Seahawks

Sun, Sep 27

1:25 PM Pacific

Game Analysis