Game Analysis

Lean – Dallas (+3.5) over SAN FRANCISCO

· Brock Purdy is averaging 8.2 yppp (2nd) this season with a 72% completion rate (3rd), but I don’t know if Shanahan will trust him in this matchup as the Cowboys are comparatively weak against the run, allowing a 45% rush success rate (27th).

· Christian McCaffrey had a 55% rush success rate last week which was his highest ever in a 49er uniform and he’s now on pace for 2,550 scrimmage yards. I think McCaffrey will be more efficient on carries than catches as Dallas is conceding a 33% success rate when opponents target running backs (6th).

· The softest part of the excellent Cowboys defense is defending tight ends where they are surrendering a 57% success rate (20th). George Kittle is gaining 0.67 EPA/target (3rd) and the All-Pro should be Purdy’s main option in this game when he drops back to pass.

· San Francisco WR Brandon Aijuk and Dallas CB Daron Bland have had hot starts to the season, and they will be matched up on Sunday night. Aiyuk is the only player averaging more yards per route run than Tyreek Hill. Bland is conceding just 6.2 yards per target.

· The Cowboys have had 8 offensive linemen get at least 90 snaps in 2023. It looks like starting LT Tyron Smith will once again be sidelined, leaving backup Chuma Edoga to struggle against Nick Bosa, who has 20 pressures (7th).

· Dallas RG Zack Martin ranks 7th in pass blocking efficiency, and he should be back on the field this week. LG Tyler Smith missed the first two games of the year but has otherwise been arguably the best guard in the NFL. Smith has not allowed a hurry from 92 pass-blocking snaps and he will limit 49ers interior defender Javon Hargrave, who ranks 9th in pass-rushing efficiency.

· San Francisco nickelback Isaiah Oliver is conceding 0.68 yards per slot cover snap (5th) and he will contain WR CeeDee Lamb, who is averaging 0.52 EPA/target (18th).

· Our model favors the Cowboys by 0.4 points with a predicted total of 46.9. Dallas has a history of underperforming after a victory when facing a winning team (7-17 ATS since Dak’s first season) and San Francisco applies to a 28-5 ATS unbeaten home team angle, but the line value and matchups significantly favor Dallas.