Game Analysis

SAN FRANCISCO (-4) vs Dallas

Strong Opinion – Dalton Schultz (DAL) Under 42.5 Receiving Yards (-115) to (-125)

· The 49ers and Cowboys ranked 11th and 12th respectively in Rush EPA this season, but this game will be decided by the quarterbacks as San Francisco’s defense is conceding only a 36% rush success rate (2nd) and Dallas allowed just a 37% rush success rate (3rd).

· Brock Purdy averaged 10.5 yppp last week against the Seahawks and now his EPA/play has surpassed Jimmy Garoppolo. Purdy is 221 dropbacks into his career and trails only Patrick Mahomes in EPA/play.

· The 49ers are averaging 34.8 points per game since week 14 when Brock Purdy became the full-time starter, but the rookie is only around league-average with his completion percentage over expectation – rating the same as Matt Ryan -and most of the credit for San Francisco’s offensive fireworks to close the season should go to the receiving weapons and head coach Kyle Shanahan.

· Shanahan might be the coach I trust most in the NFL to attack specific weaknesses in opposing defenses and he should have his pick of either washed-up Cowboys LB Anthony Barr or washed-up CB Xavier Rhodes, who was cut by a similarly desperate Bills defense after week 13.

· The Cowboys lost starting cornerbacks Anthony Brown and Jourdan Lewis in the regular season. DaRon Bland was the only backup CB to prove serviceable, so Dallas went searching for someone else and signed Rhodes to try patch it together.

· Dallas Pro Bowl CB Trevon Diggs shadowed Mike Evans on 42 of 61 routes last week, but the 49ers have two capable WRs and Rhodes will likely be exposed when he is on the field. Brandon Aiyuk averaged 0.37 EPA/target this year(18th) while Deebo Samuel had 6 receptions for 133 receiving yards and a touchdown last week.

· Barr will struggle if Shanahan can get him in coverage versus Christian McCaffrey, whose 1.83 yards per route run led all running backs this season.

· Dallas S Jayron Kearse went down last week and the Cowboys were in danger of missing three of the six members of the secondary to get at least 20 snaps in the season opener, but Kearse is adamant he will be back on the field for the Divisional Round.

· Dallas conceded only 5.6 yards per target to opposing TEs (3rd) this season. Linebacker Leighton Vander Esch ranks 12th in coverage grade by PFF and he may limit 49ers TE George Kittle, who averaged 0.46 EPA/target (2nd).

· San Francisco was the only offensive line not to allow a single sack or hit in the first round of the playoffs, but I do not expect them to repeat the feat in this matchup.

· Dallas LB Micah Parsons finished this season with league-high 90 pressures despite 64 snaps spent in coverage. Parsons had 8 of his 10 pressures last week at right edge (across from the left tackle) to avoid Buccaneers RT Tristian Wirfs, who led the NFL in pass blocking efficiency. Parson will similarly likely avoid 49ers LT Trent Williams in this game. Williams ranked 6th in pass blocking efficiency – conceding just 15 pressures all season long and allowing only two quarterback hits.

· San Francisco RG Spencer Burford surrendered 3 sacks to JJ Watt in week 18. Then, the 49ers put him in a platoon with Daniel Brunskill for the Wild Card Round. Neither will be confident against Cowboys interior defender Osa Odighizuwa, who ranked 19th in pass rushing efficiency.

· Tyron Smith made the Pro Bowl as the Dallas left tackle last season, ranking 3rd in pass blocking efficiency, but the Cowboys have moved him over to the right in his six games this year. Smith will be out of position versus Nick Bosa, who led the NFL in pass rushing efficiency.

· Dallas signed wide receiver TY Hilton prior to week 16 and his route participation has climbed each game. Hilton’s 51% route participation solidified him as the third WR for the Cowboys offense which is crucial given the lack of depth behind CeeDee Lamb.

· Only 14% of qualifying receivers this season had a negative EPA/target and Cowboys TE Dalton Schultz, WR Michael Gallup and WR Noah Brown were all in the 14%. Some of the negative EPA is to blame on Dak Prescott’s career-high 3.8% interception rate, but those three receivers are not getting it done for the Dallas offense.

· The Cowboys are targeting tight ends on 26% of passes since week 7 (5th-most) when Prescott returned to the field, but 49ers linebackers will shut down Dalton Schultz, Jake Ferguson, and Peyton Hendershot. San Francisco’s defense conceded just 6.2 yards per target to TEs (5th).

· Hilton’s emergence will be important to give a secondary option beside WR CeeDee Lamb, who gained 2.43 yards per slot route run in the regular season (4th) and averaged 11.3 yards per target last week with a score. Jimmie Ward is surrendering 1.36 yards per cover snap in the slot, ranking 15th out of 18 qualifying nickelbacks, and he will likely get burned on the inside by Lamb.

· The 49ers played on Saturday afternoon at home while the Cowboys had to fly to Tampa Bay on Monday night. Dallas is at a massive rest disadvantage for a fourth-straight road game on the other side of the country. Sunday games where one team’s game the previous week was before the previous Sunday (so 7 or more days off) and the other team played the previous Monday (5 days off) are 38-21-1 ATS from favorite to +7 (and 48-21-2 Over). Dallas also applies to a 49-103-2 ATS third consecutive road game situation and playoff teams playing their fourth consecutive road game off a playoff road win are just 1-9 straight up and 2-7-1 ATS. The Cowboys are also just 6-16 ATS after a victory when facing a team with a winning record, including 0-3 ATS in the playoffs.

· Our model makes San Francisco a 4.2-point favorite with a predicted total of 46.6.