Game Analysis

Lean – Dallas (-2.5) over NY JETS

• New York’s run-play rate over expectation is 15 percentage points above average which is not the way you want to attack this Dallas defense surrendering a league-high 0.44 EPA/dropback.
• The Cowboys soft zone allowed Jordan Love to complete 28 of 28 passes under 10 air yards in last week’s tie but Justin Fields isn’t that type of quarterback. Fields ranks 29th relatively versus two-high safety shells compared to single-high this season and Dallas has a 65% two-high rate (6th-highest).
• Dallas All-Pro WR CeeDee Lamb is out. WR George Pickens picked up the slack going for 8 receptions and 134 yards last week, but he will be shut down on Sunday by CB Sauce Gardner, who has a 74% lockdown percentage (2nd).
• The Cowboys were 16th in pass blocking efficiency last week without two starters on the offensive line but are now without a third starter with Tyler Guyton likely sidelined. The cluster loss would be worth 1.3 points if Guyton, Booker, and Bebee don’t suit up.
• Dallas backup C Brock Hoffman is surrendering a league-high 3.0 pressures per game, and he will struggle across from iDL Quinnen Williams, who ranks 9th in pass rushing efficiency.
• Jets edge rusher Jermaine Johnson could be back in uniform this week. Johnson has only played in two games and still has 2 more pressures than backup Micheal Clemons, who has 46% more pass rushing snaps on the season than Johnson.
• Our model favors the Cowboys by 3.6 with a predicted total of 46.5.