Dallas Cowboys @

New York Giants

Mon, Nov 4
5:15 PM Pacific
Rotation:
Odds: New York Giants +7, Total: 48

Game Analysis

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Lean – Dallas (-7) over NY GIANTS

Lean – Under (48.5)

The Dallas offense is significantly better with a healthy offensive line. The Cowboys rank 3rd in pass blocking efficiency with left tackle Tyron Smith and right tackle La’el Collins in the starting lineup. In the two weeks without the both tackles, Dallas ranked 28th in pass blocking efficiency but Dak Prescott should have plenty of time in the pocket with both tackles back this week. Amari Cooper is gaining 3.03 yards per route run (2nd) and his counterpart Michael Gallup may outshine him. Gallup is averaging 2.57 yards per route run in his 5 games and he will line up across from DeAndre Baker, who is surrendering 1.93 yards per cover snap, which ranks 3rd-worst in the NFL. The Cowboys ground game ranks 3rd and Ezekiel Elliott should cruise versus New York’s 25th-rated rush defense.

The Giants lead the league in rushing efficiency in the weeks Saquon Barkley has started and I expect the success on the ground to continue against a mediocre Dallas rush defense. However, Barkley will be limited as a receiver with the Cowboys allowing only 5.5 yards per target to opposing running backs (9th). Giants’ guards Kevin Zeitler and Will Hernandez both rank in the top 10 of pass blocking efficiency and will neutralize Maliek Collins, whose 18% pass rush win rate ranks 6th among interior defenders. Robert Quinn leads the NFL in pass rush win rate (33%) and he should have a big night against left tackle Nate Solder, who ranks 5th-worst in pass blocking efficiency.

The Dallas offense at full strength will find little resistance from New York’s defense. Saquon Barkley should be effective as a runner as long as the Giants can keep is close, but his impact will be neutralized once the Cowboys establish a lead. Dallas is coming off a bye and road favorites of more than 3 points off a bye week are 63-37 ATS over the years. Our model favors the Cowboys by 8.9 points, with a predicted total of 48.5 points, and I’ll lean with Dallas at -7 or less and I’ll lean Under based on a very good 742-530-16 Under angle.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Cowboys
  • Giants
DAL
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 35.4 37.9
  • Succ Pass Plays 56.4% 48.4%
  • Sack Rate 4.0% 6.8%
  • Int Rate 2.9% 1.5%
  • Deep Pass Rate 18.7% 21.3%
  • Big Pass Yards 40.6% 40.7%
  • NYPP 8.2 6.1



Rush


  • Rush Plays 29.9 23.1
  • RB YPR 4.4 4.3
  • Stuff Rate 14.0% 18.0%
  • Succ Rush Plays 53.2% 48.1%
  • Big Rush Yards 38.8% 37.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.7 4.3




Game

  • All Snaps 65.3 61.0
  • Early Down Succ 55.2% 54.3%
  • Succ Rate 54.5% 48.5%
  • Big Yards Rate 43.0% 40.9%
  • Yards Per Play 6.7 5.3
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.5% 1.4%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.5 29.7
  • Run Ratio 45.6% 38.0%
  • Starting Field Pos 26.2 27.1
  • Game Control 2.7 -2.7
 
  • Points 27.1 17.7
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