Dallas Cowboys @

New England Patriots

Sun, Oct 17
1:25 PM Pacific
Rotation: 271
Odds: New England Patriots +3.5, Total: 50.5

Game Analysis

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Note: The line has moved down to +3.5 since I released this play but I still like the Patriots as a Strong Opinion at +3.5 or more.

Strong Opinion – NEW ENGLAND (+4) over Dallas

Mac Jones averaged a season-high 7.3 yards per pass play last week despite New England’s offensive line missing four starters. RG Shaq Mason has returned to Patriots practice, and I think LG Michael Onwenu and LT Isaiah Wynn should be available by Sunday as well. Mason has yet to allow a sack and will limit Cowboys’ interior defender Osa Odighizuwa, who ranks 3rd in pass rushing efficiency.

This could be the coming out party for New England tight end signings Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith as the Cowboys are surrendering 9.4 yards per target to opposing TEs.

Dallas wide receiver Michael Gallup has been out since week 1 with a calf strain and Dak Prescott is adapting by targeting tight ends on 26% of passes (6th) – a significant increase over last season’s 18% target rate to tight ends. However, the new approach is unlikely to work in this matchup as the Patriots are conceding a league-low 4.2 yards per target to opposing tight ends.

Linebacker Jamie Collins only played 3 snaps in his Patriots debut last week, but he should make more of an impact in this game. Collins allowed just one reception every 13.1 cover snaps (2nd) his last season with New England.

Our model favors the Cowboys by only 1.1 points, with a predicted total of 50.5 points, and the Cowboys are in a tough spot going on the road for the first time in nearly a month after playing their last 3 games at home. Road favorites of more than 3 points are just 18-40-1 ATS after playing their previous 2 games at home, as long as they’re not coming off a bye week. New England is a Strong Opinion at +3.5 or more.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Cowboys
  • Patriots
DAL
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 35.0 43.4
  • Succ Pass Plays 58.9% 49.0%
  • Sack Rate 5.5% 4.2%
  • Int Rate 1.7% 4.9%
  • Deep Pass Rate 13.5% 17.6%
  • Big Pass Yards 36.9% 43.6%
  • NYPP 8.1 7.6



Rush


  • Rush Plays 32.6 18.8
  • RB YPR 5.2 5.3
  • Stuff Rate 19.6% 17.7%
  • Succ Rush Plays 52.8% 49.0%
  • Big Rush Yards 46.1% 27.9%
  • Yards Per Rush 5.1 4.3




Game

  • All Snaps 67.6 62.2
  • Early Down Succ 59.1% 52.2%
  • Succ Rate 56.7% 48.7%
  • Big Yards Rate 41.2% 41.3%
  • Yards Per Play 6.7 6.6
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.6% 0.6%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.0 27.5
  • Run Ratio 49.2% 29.9%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.0 0.0
  • Game Control 4.3 -4.3
 
  • Points 34.0 23.4
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