Dallas Cowboys @

Los Angeles Chargers

Sat, Sep 18
9:00 PM Pacific
Rotation: 293
Odds: Los Angeles Chargers -3.5, Total: 55.5

Game Analysis

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LA CHARGERS (-3.5) vs Dallas

Dallas has one of the most lethal offenses in the NFL with 47 more first downs than any other team during the six weeks Dak Prescott has started since the beginning of last season. LT Tyron Smith is also healthy again (made seven-straight Pro Bowls from 2013-2019) and did not concede a pressure in week 1. RG Zack Martin was activated after missing last Thursday due to covid and he will be a major help on the interior. Martin ranked 6th in pass blocking efficiency before going on the IR in week 13 last season.

However, starting RT La’el Collins was suspended five games for violation of the league’s substance abuse policy. Backup right tackle Terence Steele will have his hands full across from edge defender Joey Bosa, who finished 5th in pass rushing efficiency last year.

Safety Derwin James (All-Pro in 2019) returned after being out for the entirety of the 2020 season without missing a beat. James had seven tackles and a pass breakup against Washington and should take away the inside when CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper line up in the slot. WR Michael Gallup is out for the Cowboys and he is worth 0.4 points over backup WR Cedrick Wilson by our numbers. CB Chris Harris is out for the Chargers, which is worth 0.6 points based on our metrics.

The Chargers allowed a league-low 12% pressure rate in week 1 and there’s a chance they could do it again on Sunday. The Cowboys didn’t manage a single QB hit on Tom Brady last week and now there is real concern that edge defender DeMarcus Lawrence (worth 0.8 points) will not be available due to a foot injury in Wednesday’s practice. I’m going to presume Lawrence will not be in the lineup on Sunday. I expect Justin Herbert to pick on CB Anthony Brown, who surrendered more than 100 receiving yards against the Buccaneers.

Our model favors the Chargers by 2.3 points with a predicted total of 53.7 points.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Cowboys
  • Chargers


  • Pass Plays 59.0 50.0
  • Succ Pass Plays 57.6% 56.0%
  • Sack Rate 1.7% 0.0%
  • Int Rate 1.7% 4.0%
  • Deep Pass Rate 10.3% 22.0%
  • Big Pass Yards 30.8% 43.8%
  • NYPP 6.8 7.6


  • Rush Plays 18.0 14.0
  • RB YPR 3.4 3.7
  • Stuff Rate 27.8% 7.1%
  • Succ Rush Plays 38.9% 64.3%
  • Big Rush Yards 40.0% 0.0%
  • Yards Per Rush 3.3 3.7


  • All Snaps 77.0 64.0
  • Early Down Succ 54.2% 60.4%
  • Succ Rate 53.2% 57.8%
  • Big Yards Rate 32.0% 38.5%
  • Yards Per Play 6.0 6.7
  • Fumble Lost Rate 0.0% 3.1%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 27.1 23.6
  • Run Ratio 23.4% 21.9%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.0 0.0
  • Game Control -3.2 3.2
  • Points 29.0 31.0
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