Dallas Cowboys @

Kansas City Chiefs

Sun, Nov 21
1:25 PM Pacific
Rotation: 473
Odds: Kansas City Chiefs -2.5, Total: 56.5

Game Analysis

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2-Star Best Bet – **KANSAS CITY (-2.5) over Dallas

I’m not convinced that Kansas City’s offense has solved its issue long term versus Cover 4 defenses, but this would be the two week stretch to get right if there ever was one. The Raiders use Cover 3 at the league’s highest rate and the Cowboys are in Cover 1 more than almost any team in the NFL. Both Cover 3 and Cover 1 have just one safety deep, which enables Patrick Mahomes to hit his deep shots. Mahomes averaged 8.1 yppp last Sunday night as Las Vegas defensive coordinator Gus Bradley refused to adapt his scheme. Dallas defensive coordinator Dan Quinn worked with Bradley in Seattle, and I doubt that he will make drastic changes to his scheme for this game.

Cowboys CB Trevon Diggs is a boom or bust cornerback that leads the league with 8 interceptions while surrendering a horrible 1.68 yards per cover snap. Tyreek Hill has 18 targets with 20+ air yards (6th) and he is likely to get behind Diggs at least once this week. Travis Kelce is averaging 1.84 yards per route run (3rd) and should be open underneath as the Dallas defense is surrendering 8.6 yards per target to opposing TEs. The Chiefs unleashed their screen game in Las Vegas with RB Darrel Williams hauling in nine receptions for 101 receiving yards and we may see more of that this week.

The Cowboys offense is finally back at full strength with WR Michael Gallup in the lineup last week and starting LT Tyron Smith likely back on the field for this game. However, our numbers believe Kansas City’s defense will be able to get more stops on Dak Prescott than Dallas can get against Mahomes – particularly with #2 receiver Amari Cooper out with Covid. Star LT Tyron Smith is also out, which hurts the Cowboys’ offense a bit.

Our model favors the Chiefs by 7.4 points, with a predicted total of 56.9 points, and Kansas City applies to a 416-270-17 ATS situation that is based on the negative difference between their spread win percentage and that of the Cowboys. That contrary indicator has been consistently good over the years and our model thinks the market has gone too far by making Kansas City less than a field goal favorite at home. The Chiefs are a 2-Star Best Bet at -2.5 up to -120 odds and a 1-Star play up to -3 -115 odds.

  • Team Stats
  • Game Log
  • Cowboys
  • Chiefs
DAL
Offense
Defense



Pass



  • Pass Plays 38.44 37.56
  • Succ Pass Plays 52.3% 45.0%
  • Sack Rate 4.0% 5.3%
  • Int Rate 1.8% 4.4%
  • Deep Pass Rate 17.3% 17.5%
  • Big Pass Yards 40.9% 44.9%
  • NYPP 7.66 6.73



Rush


  • Rush Plays 30.11 23.33
  • RB YPR 4.65 4.36
  • Stuff Rate 19.6% 22.9%
  • Succ Rush Plays 49.4% 47.1%
  • Big Rush Yards 40.9% 44.3%
  • Yards Per Rush 4.58 4.34




Game

  • All Snaps 68.56 60.89
  • Early Down Succ 53.5% 50.1%
  • Succ Rate 51.1% 45.8%
  • Big Yards Rate 40.9% 44.8%
  • Yards Per Play 6.30 5.81
  • Fumble Lost Rate 1.0% 0.5%
  • Time Per Play (sec) 28.09 28.53
  • Run Ratio 43.9% 38.3%
  • Starting Field Pos 0.00 0.00
  • Game Control 3.44 -3.44
 
  • Points 31.56 21.67
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