Game Analysis

Strong Opinion – JACKSONVILLE (+4.5) over Dallas

· Trevor Lawrence is averaging 6.8 yppp since the start over November with a 2.41s average time to throw (3rd-fastest).

· Dallas leads the league with a 10.48% sack rate, but Lawrences’ quick release has led to Jacksonville’s offensive line to ranking 4th in pass blocking efficiency and they should limit the Cowboys up front.

· The Cowboys’ secondary is already without two starting cornerbacks, Jourdan Lewis and Anthony Brown, and now Trevon Diggs is banged-up with a left thumb injury. Diggs ranks 26th in coverage grade by PFF.

· Lawrence completed 9 of 13 attempts traveling at least 10 air yards for 154 yards last week and he will attack downfield again versus the Dallas backups in the secondary.

· Dallas right tackle Terence Steele ranks 16th in pass blocking efficiency but he is now out with a torn ACL and MCL. The Cowboys might be getting tackle Tyron Smith back this week, but he could be working his way back into playing shape. Smith ranked 3rd in pass blocking efficiency in 2021 but I doubt he will be at that level right away.

· Jaguars nickelback Darious Williams ranks 10th-worst in coverage grade by PFF and he will struggle versus CeeDee Lamb, who is gaining 2.23 yards per route run in the slot (5th).

· The Cowboys have gone 6-1 since Dak Prescott returned in week 7, but they nearly lost to Houston last week and I believe they could get upset on Sunday.

· Our model makes Dallas a 2.9-point favorite, with a predicted total of 46.4 points, and the Jaguars apply to a 32-3 ATS subset of a 103-48-3 ATS home dog momentum situation. The Cowboys may also be focusing some attention on next week’s division showdown with Philadelphia.

Jacksonville is a Strong Opinion at +4 points or more.