Dallas Cowboys @ Houston Texans Matchup Analysis

Game Analysis

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Lean – HOUSTON (-3.5/-3) over Dallas

The Cowboys were fortunate to win their first game without star LB Sean Lee, as they surrendered 7.2 yards per play to the Lions last Sunday. The Dallas defense is now conceding 6.5 yards per play in 6 games without Lee the past two seasons compared to just 4.5 yards per play in the 14 games he’s played. The Cowboys defense will get a minor boost with David Irving returning from suspension. Irving recorded 7 sacks in 2017, ranking 7th among interior defensive linemen despite only playing half the season. Still, it’s unknown how many snaps Irving will get in his first game back and I expect this Texans offense to move the ball easily versus the Dallas defense sans Sean Lee.

Houston’s defense only has 1 interception this season, but they should add to that total on Sunday. The Cowboys receivers aren’t talented enough to create separation and 22.6% of Dak Prescott’s passes have had a defender within one yard of his target (2nd-highest). Prescott is fortunate to only have 2 interceptions this year despite being forced into numerous aggressive throws. The 7th-rated Dallas ground game will face a Texans defense surrendering just a 37% success rate to opposing rushers and Ezekiel Elliott’s 5.8 ypr average will likely drop, which puts further putting pressure on Prescott to make plays in the passing game. On a positive front, 5-time Pro Bowl left tackle Tyron Smith, who has yet to concede a sack in 2018, will likely neutralize Texans’ DE Jadeveon Clowney, who recorded 2 sacks and 8 pressures last week. The advanced spread on this game was Houston by 4.5 before the Texans beat the Colts on the road in overtime and the Cowboys were outgained by 0.8 yards per play at home against the Lions, yet somehow the line moved a point in favor of the Cowboys. Our model favors the Houston by 5.6 points and I’ll lean with the Texans.

Team Stats
Game Log

Cowboys
Texans

DAL

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 32.3 34.8
Succ Pass Plays 37.8% 45.9%
Sack Rate 10.0% 9.7%
Int Rate 1.5% 0.0%
Deep Pass Rate 11.3% 15.8%
Big Pass Yards 32.4% 32.2%
NYPP 5.4 6.2

Rush

Rush Plays 26.3 28.8
RB YPR 5.5 3.3
Stuff Rate 17.6% 27.8%
Succ Rush Plays 48.4% 40.4%
Big Rush Yards 53.5% 39.3%
Yards Per Rush 5.8 3.4

Game

All Snaps 58.5 63.5
Early Down Succ 47.9% 43.4%
Succ Rate 42.5% 42.5%
Big Yards Rate 43.5% 36.5%
Yards Per Play 5.3 5.0
Fumble Lost Rate 0.9% 0.8%
Time Per Play (sec) 29.6 29.8
Run Ratio 44.7% 44.9%
Starting Field Pos 24.2 29.2
Game Control -0.7 0.7

Points 16.8 19.3

HOU

Offense

Defense

Pass

Pass Plays 40.0 40.8
Succ Pass Plays 46.8% 49.3%
Sack Rate 10.4% 6.9%
Int Rate 2.8% 0.6%
Deep Pass Rate 24.4% 17.0%
Big Pass Yards 42.0% 35.0%
NYPP 7.2 7.3

Rush

Rush Plays 28.8 27.5
RB YPR 3.5 3.3
Stuff Rate 25.7% 22.6%
Succ Rush Plays 43.2% 36.8%
Big Rush Yards 43.1% 25.7%
Yards Per Rush 4.2 3.3

Game

All Snaps 68.8 68.3
Early Down Succ 47.1% 43.7%
Succ Rate 45.9% 44.0%
Big Yards Rate 45.3% 33.5%
Yards Per Play 6.1 5.6
Fumble Lost Rate 0.8% 1.3%
Time Per Play (sec) 26.7 28.6
Run Ratio 41.4% 42.3%
Starting Field Pos 31.1 23.7
Game Control -4.5 4.5

Points 24.0 27.0

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@CAR	8 – 16 L	-6.7	37.1% / 50.0%	17.1% / 10.7%	0.0% / 0.0%	3.9 / 5.2	26.1% / 44.7%	17.4% / 21.1%	4.1 / 3.9	58 / 66	38.6% / 58.7%	32.8% / 47.0%	22.7% / 28.7%	4.0 / 4.5	1.7% / 1.5%	39.7% / 57.6%	21.4 / 38.1
2	NYG	20 – 13 W	10.5	36.0% / 36.0%	0.0% / 12.0%	0.0% / 0.0%	6.4 / 4.4	59.3% / 47.1%	14.8% / 35.3%	5.2 / 2.1	52 / 67	56.8% / 33.3%	48.1% / 38.8%	48.3% / 18.4%	5.8 / 3.8	0.0% / 1.5%	51.9% / 25.4%	27.6 / 27.9
3	@SEA	13 – 24 L	-8.3	28.2% / 42.9%	12.8% / 7.1%	5.9% / 0.0%	3.5 / 6.5	52.6% / 30.0%	15.8% / 30.0%	8.7 / 2.9	58 / 68	39.5% / 34.0%	36.2% / 35.3%	51.2% / 34.8%	5.2 / 4.4	1.7% / 0.0%	32.8% / 58.8%	25.9 / 27.2
4	DET	26 – 24 W	1.7	50.0% / 54.5%	10.0% / 9.1%	0.0% / 0.0%	7.7 / 8.7	55.6% / 40.0%	22.2% / 25.0%	5.1 / 4.8	66 / 53	56.9% / 47.6%	53.0% / 49.1%	51.6% / 64.1%	6.3 / 7.2	0.0% / 0.0%	54.5% / 37.7%	21.8 / 23.8

* game log stats denoted as Off/Def

2018 Game Log				PASS				RUSH			GAMES
Wk	Opp	Score	Game Control	Succ Pass Plays	Sack Rate	Int Rate	NYPP	Succ Rush Plays	Stuff Rate	Yds per Rush	All Snaps	Early Down Succ	Succ Rate	Big Yards Rate	Yds per Play	Fum Lost Rate	Run Ratio	Starting Field Pos
1	@NE	20 – 27 L	-10.6	29.7% / 48.8%	8.1% / 4.9%	2.9% / 2.6%	4.3 / 6.5	45.7% / 38.7%	25.7% / 9.7%	4.8 / 3.9	72 / 72	43.1% / 47.4%	37.5% / 44.4%	37.4% / 38.0%	4.5 / 5.4	1.4% / 2.8%	48.6% / 43.1%	35.4 / 25.4
2	@TEN	17 – 20 L	-6.4	48.6% / 39.1%	11.4% / 4.3%	3.2% / 0.0%	8.3 / 8.0	42.3% / 35.3%	11.5% / 14.7%	5.7 / 2.9	61 / 57	46.0% / 35.0%	45.9% / 36.8%	53.1% / 27.9%	7.2 / 5.0	0.0% / 0.0%	42.6% / 59.6%	26.6 / 23.2
3	NYG	22 – 27 L	-7.6	53.7% / 60.6%	7.3% / 12.1%	2.6% / 0.0%	9.0 / 8.0	42.1% / 32.1%	36.8% / 25.0%	3.1 / 4.1	60 / 61	50.0% / 47.8%	50.0% / 47.5%	53.4% / 41.3%	7.1 / 6.2	1.7% / 0.0%	31.7% / 45.9%	28.9 / 22.2
4	@IND	37 – 34 W	6.7	55.3% / 48.5%	14.9% / 6.1%	2.5% / 0.0%	7.4 / 6.6	42.9% / 41.2%	28.6% / 41.2%	3.4 / 2.4	82 / 83	49.2% / 44.6%	50.0% / 47.0%	37.1% / 26.6%	5.7 / 5.8	0.0% / 2.4%	42.7% / 20.5%	33.4 / 24.1

Dallas Cowboys @

Houston Texans

Sun, Oct 7

5:20 PM Pacific

Game Analysis