Game Analysis

Lean – CLEVELAND (-2.5) over Dallas

Lean – Over (41)

• I’m high on the Browns but the market has mostly adjusted after opening Cowboys -2 earlier this summer.
• Joe Flacco averaged -0.07 EPA/play in Cleveland last year and the market had their offense rated 24th. Everyone has been disappointed with Deshaun Watson’s stint for the Browns so far, but he’s averaged -0.04 EPA/play in Cleveland, which is 1.1 points per game better than Flacco.
• The Browns brought in new offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey to incorporate the spread concepts that play to Watson’s strengths. The Bills averaged 6.1 yppl under Dorsey last season and just 5.4 yppl with Joe Brady calling the plays down the stretch.
• Cleveland’s offensive line is elite with the two Pro Bowl guards and tackle Jack Conklin coming back. Conklin only got 22 snaps last season, but he ranked 4th in pass-blocking efficiency in 2022.
• The Browns also have a solid group of receivers. WR Amari Cooper ranked 13th in yards per route run last year and David Njoku ranked 6th among tight ends. Cleveland added WR Jerry Jeudy, has shown he can be one of the league’s best slot receivers by ranking 5th in yards per route run there during the 2022 season.
• Watson’s offenses finished 10th, 8th, and 15th in the market in his final three seasons in Houston and I think Cleveland’s offense will be clearly above average this season.
• The Cowboys defense loses coordinator Dan Quinn and a ton of depth in the trenches.
• Backup interior defenders Johnathan Hankins and Neville Gallimore accounted for 1 run stop per game and are gone. They also lost Dorance Armstrong and Dante Fowler, who combined for 70 pressures off the edge.
• I don’t expect Mike Zimmer to be a downgrade at play-caller though. Zimmer runs a 4-3 base scheme and his famous double-A gap nickel package in passing situations. Primarily the coverage is press-man, which should line up well with the secondary when healthy – but All-Pro cornerback DaRon Bland is out to start the season. Bland is worth 0.6 points by our metrics.
• The Browns defense brought in defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz last offseason and rated 2nd in the betting market by the end of the year. They didn’t lose anyone of note and added interior defender Quinton Jefferson, who has averaged 35.8 pressures per season since 2018.
• The Dallas offense will take a step backwards this year after losing All-Pro LT Tyron Smith and C Tyler Biadasz, who was 14th in PFF run block grade last year and 5th in pass blocking efficiency on true sets.
• Our model makes Cleveland a 2.9-point favorite with a predicted total of 43 points.