Game Analysis
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Strong Opinion – First-Half Over (25.5) – Dallas at ATLANTA
Lean – Dallas (+3)
- It was initially looking optimistic for the Dallas defense with possible returns from All-Pro CB DaRon Bland and edge rusher Micah Parsons but now both will remain sidelined and the other starting cornerback Trevon Diggs has a tear in his calf. The Cowboys also are without starting edge defender DeMarcus Lawrence.
- Atlanta’s offense has three games with at least 30 points scored this season and Kirk Cousins can dice up porous secondaries if the opponent doesn’t have a pass rush.
- Dallas turned the ball over on 7% of drives in September but it has been 31% of drives in October. Dak Prescott has a 5.1% turnover-worthy play rate after it was just 2.0% last season.
- Prescott’s yards per attempt against zone is only 82% of his yards per attempt versus man coverage and he could throw another interception as Atlanta’s defense has an 82% zone coverage rate (5th-highest).
- However, Prescott should have time to pick apart the zone, as the Falcons only have a 2.2% sack rate, the fourth worst of any team in the last 25 seasons. Prescott will feature CeeDee Lamb again on the inside after the wide receiver had a 46% target share last Sunday night. Atlanta nickelback Dee Alford is surrendering 1.39 yards per cover snap in the slot (fifth worst).
- Our model favors the Falcons by 3.9 points, with a predicted total of 56.5 points. The first-half Over gives better value than the game over. I’ll lean with Dallas on the basis of a 202-102-7 ATS contrary indicator that applies to the Cowboys.
Strong Opinion on the First-Half Over to 26 points. The alternate play is the game over 52 or less.