Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **Cleveland (+3 -105) over WASHINGTON

Lean-  Over (43.5)

• Deshaun Watson is averaging 3.6 yppp this season but he has not been nearly that bad and Cleveland’s offense will turn it around. Watson has just a 1.1% turnover-worthy play rate (3rd) and ranks 16th in PFF passing grade.
• According to Ben Baldwin’s model, Watson was the unluckiest quarterback in week 4 and he should’ve been 0.24 EPA/play better after normalizing for drops, takeaway variance, and pass protection.
• The Browns’ offensive line will be better for this game. Left tackle James Hudson has surrendered 15 pressures (2nd-most) but is out this week, and Cleveland didn’t bring up another tackle. Head coach Kevin Stefanski sounded confident at least two of Dawand Jones, Jedrick Wills, and Jack Conklin will be available on Sunday- and possibly all three, which would result in a major upgrade for the Browns offensive line over Hudson.
• Watson will likely have his cleanest pockets of the season and a favorable matchup as the Browns are averaging 43% more yards per pass play versus middle field open coverage than middle field closed coverage, and Washington’s defense has a 65.9% middle field open coverage rate (6th-highest).
• Cleveland Pro Bowl tight end David Njoku should be back in uniform this game providing another spark. Njoku averaged 1.70 yards per route run last season (6th) and is worth 0.8 points to the Browns offense.
• The Commanders’ offense has a 45.9% rush success rate (6th) but the ground game will be shut down as Cleveland’s rush defense ranks 7th according to our numbers.
• There will be nowhere to go with the football for Jayden Daniels if the Browns keep him in the pocket. Washington WR Terry McLaurin has 8 deep targets (4th) but he will be contained by CB Denzel Ward, whose 60% separation prevented rate ranks 7th.
• The Commanders platooning left tackles are allowing a 6.5% pressure rate and they will struggle across from edge defender Myles Garrett, who ranks 2nd in pass-rushing efficiency.
• Our model favors the Browns by 0.9 points, with a predicted total of 45.7 points, and the Browns apply to a 27-0 ATS subset of a 77-29-5 ATS early season contrary angle. Playing the Browns certainly qualifies as contrary but it is the right play to make.

Cleveland is a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 -115 odds or better and 1-Star at +3 -120 odds.