Game Analysis

2-Star Best Bet – **Cleveland (+2.5) over WASHINGTON

· The weather has masked Deshaun Watson’s improvement recently and I believe Cleveland’s offense is due for a breakout game. Watson is averaging only 5 yppp in his last three starts but those were in the rain, then snow, and last week was the coldest game in Cleveland Browns history.

· Watson had three touchdown passes dropped last game presumably because of the temperature.

· Watson had a 51% success rate in the snow versus Baltimore’s defense in week 15. The Ravens had not allowed opponents to be successful on more than half of dropbacks for two months prior to the Browns game.

· Watson had a higher success rate than Joe Burrow in the rain in week 14.

· The conditions will not be nearly as treacherous for Watson on Sunday and his offensive line has the talent to thwart the Commanders up front.

· Washington interior defender Daron Payne ranks 19th in pass rushing efficiency and Jonathan Allen has 47 pressures (7th).

· The Browns got starting center Ethan Pocic back last week and he is conceding just a 2% pressure rate compared to a 5% pressure rate allowed by backup C Hjalte Froholdt.

· Cleveland LG Joel Bitonio ranks 13th in pass blocking efficiency in 2022 after making the Pro Bowl last season along with Browns starting RG Wyatt Teller.

· Meanwhile, Carson Wentz will be running for his life behind a Commanders offensive line ranked last in pass blocking efficiency and Browns’ edge rusher Myles Garrett, who is 4th in the league with 13.5 sacks, is likely to be in the backfield consistently.

· Wentz is averaging -0.053 EPA/play this year which is slightly below Taylor Heinicke’s -0.035 EPA/play.

· Our model favors the Browns by 1.6 points, with a predicted total of 40.1 points, and Cleveland applies to 63-22-2 ATS bounce-back situation based on last week’s upset loss and a 116-52-3 ATS late season situation.

Cleveland is a 2-Star Best Bet at +2 points or more and 1-Star down to +1.