Game Analysis

Lean – Cleveland (+5.5) over PITTSBURGH

• The Browns would be a Strong Opinion here if it weren’t for an unprecedentedly challenging travel spot this week in their third straight game away from home, including flying to London and back. Traditionally, playing three straight road games results in teams playing about a point worse than they would otherwise, but I could see this situation being amplified given all the time zones they’ve crossed.
• Cleveland’s offensive line ranked 31st in pass blocking efficiency in the first four weeks, but they got starting RT Jack Conklin back last game, and Dillon Gabriel got the ball out quickly. The Browns were 16th in pass blocking efficiency against the Vikings in week 5, and they’ll try to mimic that versus the Steelers defense with a 9.2% sack rate (2nd).
• Kevin Stefanski’s pass game leans on deep crossing routes, high–low flood reads, and intermediate digs, all designed to exploit split-safety coverages, but Gabriel could struggle as Pittsburgh’s defense has a 58% single-high safety rate (2nd-highest).
• Cleveland’s offense ranks 31st relatively versus single-high after ranking 26th in 2024.
• With no WR Cedric Tillman, Gabriel targeted tight ends on 41% of passes in week 5 (2nd-most). The Browns’ main avenue to yards on offense will be TE screens to David Njoku and Harold Fannin, as the Steelers are allowing a 68% success rate to opposing tight ends (25th).
• Aaron Rodgers has a league-low 2.48-second time to throw, and he’s getting the ball out so fast that Pittsburgh’s offensive line ranks 7th in pass blocking efficiency. The quick passing will attempt to neutralize Cleveland’s pass rush with a 9.2% sack rate (4th).
• However, Steelers LT Broderick Jones has surrendered a league-high 4 sacks, and he will struggle across from edge rusher Myles Garrett, who has 24 pressures (8th).
• Pittsburgh’s offense doesn’t have the talent or scheme to beat man-coverage. Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith uses heavy, condensed formations to set up zone defenders who react to run fakes, but sticky man coverage doesn’t honor them, and the Browns lead the NFL with a 45% man-coverage rate. Rodgers’ yards per attempt against man is a league-low 55% of his yards per attempt against zone coverage.
• The screen game will not solve this structural disadvantage, as Cleveland’s defense is conceding a league-low 14% receiving success rate to opposing running backs.
• Our model favors the Steelers by 2.9 points, with a predicted total of 37.3 points.